• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $207,554
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 910
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.5 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $146,990
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $134,500
• Townhouse Units Sold: 80
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $94,564
• Condo Median Sales Price: $80,000
• Condo Units Sold: 49
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.5 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $197,562
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $154,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 1039
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 6.7 months

June brings us the last of the tax credit bump in activity.  Okay, so they extended the close period a bit longer, but my gut says the vast majority are closed and done with.  The extension might help a few, but I would guess most closed and are done as scheduled by the end of June. 

Because of that, in my humble opinion, we’re going to start to see everything decline.  Yes, sale levels were fairly consistent with previous in June, but I’m betting that is about to change.  And I think the number of pending sales we saw in June backs my theory.

Seasonally, we should be peaking now – there should be more sales than ever right around this time.  The tax credit made everything skew early, so seasonal trends are going to be off for a while.

In June, there were 1039 homes sold in Tucson – pretty much the same sort of levels we’ve seen for the last 3 months.  But – the number of pending sales has dropped to 1774 units.  That’s the kind of pending sales levels we see over our winter slump lately. 

What may temper the decline is that the number of homes for sale, the active listings, isn’t going up yet.  Inventory levels usually reach their lowest point right about now.  We expect sales sales go down, as the low number of pending sales indicates.  If the number of active listings starts to increase at the same time that sales decrease, then that just triggers even more of an oversupply and prices drop.  Or drop faster.  Only time will tell.

Speaking of prices, the average home in Tucson cost $197,562 with a median of $154,000, which is nearly the same as last month.  Last year at this time, the average home in Tucson was $214,926 with a median of $167,750.

There were121 sold short sales and 327 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 43% of the market.  Last month, distress sales were 42% of the market.

If you’re buying in this market, be prepared to look at a whole lot of distressed property, as that’s nearly half of what is actually selling.  And if you’re selling in this market, you’d best be pricing competitively and making all your small repairs and final cleaning before buyers come through.  There’s no second chances for sellers in this market.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $206,514
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $161,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 882
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.7 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $138,002
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $124,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 91
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 6.8 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $92,833
• Condo Median Sales Price: $81,500
• Condo Units Sold: 52
• Condo Months of Inventory: 9.2 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $194,664
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 1025
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 6.8 months

May brings us new lows in Tucson home prices – I’ve been tracking real estate statistics in Tucson since 2006, and haven’t seen anything this low yet.  Sure, we flirted with these levels back in November and April of 2009 – but the median was $10k higher at the time.

Overall, the average sales price in Tucson was $194,664 with a median of $155,000.  Last year at this time, the average price was $212,442 with a median of $175,000.  The average Tucson sales price has been hovering in the low $200ks for a while now, but there was a fairly decent dip in prices between April and May of this year.

Couple of other things I don’t really like: While the number of sales stayed strong, at 1025 units, pending sales were down and the number of active listings didn’t drop as much as one would hope as we’re just about halfway through what is traditionally a summer high sales season – we’re just over 7k listings.

No surprise that pending sales were down though, given the tax credit deadline was the end of April.  There’s a large set of those tax credit purchases that are all going through the system as a lump, and a good portion of them ought to have closed by now.

However, the months of inventory – or absorption rate – in Tucson went down slightly due to the slightly lower number of active listings – it came in at 6.8 months. 

There were109 sold short sales and 320 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property nearly 42% of the market.  Last month, distress sales were 39% of the market.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $219,188
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $169,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 887
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.1 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $169,916
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $158,250
• Townhouse Units Sold: 92
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $114,105
• Condo Median Sales Price: $104,750
• Condo Units Sold: 42
• Condo Months of Inventory: 11.8 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $210,426
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $162,500
• Citywide Units Sold: 1021
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.3 months

Once again, sales were off the charts.  April was a high sales units month, as was March.  Sustainable levels?  I’m not convinced.  But the rise in activity has been welcomed. 

Typically, sales start to increase around this time of year as we head into our summer peak.  It’s just that the values we’re seeing now are normally what we’d see at the apex of the year, not at the start of the upswing. 

There were 1021 units sold when I pulled data last week (and 1076 sales in April when checked today).  Last year at this time, there were 775.  We haven’t seen this many sales in April since 2007.

The number of homes for sale ticked up slightly from 7350 to 7410 units.  Normally, we’d be seeing inventory taper off, not increase at this time of year, so that’s unusual activity.  If the number of homes for sale in Tucson continue to increase over the summer – even with steady sales – it’ll probably trigger a small drop in the market.  Too much competition for the same number of buyers means prices go down.

Speaking of prices, the Tucson citywide average sales price was $210,426 with a median of $162,500.  Last year at this time, prices were at $196,629 on average, with a median of $164,195, which was an aberrant low value last April.  Home sale prices have been wavering in the low $200s – $210s since 2009.  It’s like Tucson is stuck at this value.  Sign we’re hitting bottom?  There’s too many other market forces to say that with confidence.

Pending sales, it’s worth noting, went up between March and April, with 2601 pending sales in April 2010.  Pending sales are those transactions where the home is under contract but not yet closed.  It’s a good sign for strong sales to continue, at least for another month.

Breaking down by type, the average single family home in Tucson cost $219,188, the average townhome cost $169,916, and a typical condo went for $114,105.

There were106 sold short sales and 288 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 39% of the market.  Last month, distress sales were 37% of the market.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $222,124
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $165,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 861
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $166,920
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $137,250
• Townhouse Units Sold: 88
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 7.5 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $88,611
• Condo Median Sales Price: $83,400
• Condo Units Sold: 36
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.5 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $212,312
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $161,900
• Citywide Units Sold: 985
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.5 months

WOW.  March was a huge month for Tucson.  The number of sales increased over 50% from last month.  A sign we’re starting the upswing into our summer high sales season.

There were 985 sales in Tucson in March, and only 630 last month.  I expected sales to increase because sales usually start to pick up around this time, but not quite that much.  I’d chalk the extra activity up to the $8000 home buyer tax credit that is expiring soon – home buyers trying to secure a home sooner rather than later. 

Which also probably means we’re just borrowing sales from the future.  If I had to guess, I’d say we’re going to have a long slow winter sales season.  Unless we see some radical market shift between now and then.  If you’re thinking about selling your house, now is the time.  Activity is up, inventory is down, and there’s a small window of opportunity here that I personally don’t think is going to last very long.  Thru summer at best.

But I’ve been wrong before, and I’ll be wrong again.  Only way to know is to wait and see.

The average sales price and median sales price in Tucson really just hasn’t moved all that much in a year.  The average sales price for a home in Tucson in March was $212,312 with a median of $161,900.  If you look at the history of those values, you’ll see they’ve had some small fluctuations, but overall the average has been hovering at the bottom $200ks and the median at the mid $160ks for a good year now.  Looking at a 3 month moving average, prices are still heading down, but much more slowly overall.

Inventory improved in March – active listings went up slightly to 7350 but the increase in sales more than offset that bump, going from 11.3 months of inventory last month to 7.5 this month.  Another sign we’re in our Summer high sales season.  Pending sales were up too, from 1712 in February to 2370 units in March.

Breaking down by type, the average single family home in Tucson cost $222,124, the average townhome cost $166,920, and a typical condo went for $88,611.

There were 99 sold short sales and 270 sold bank owned homes in March, making distressed property 37% of the market.  Last month, distress sales were 44% of the market.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $220,674
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $164,950
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 532
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $154,998
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 65
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.6 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $106,500
• Condo Median Sales Price: $91,900
• Condo Units Sold: 33
• Condo Months of Inventory: 14.7 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $207,918
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $159,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 630
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.3 months

Well, we didn’t pop out of our January slump as nicely as I might have hoped.  Usually, we see a decent increase in sales activity between January and February.  While sales went up a tad, it wasn’t nearly as much as the seasonal trend would indicate.

There were 630 homes sold in February, up slightly from the 613 sales in January.  Seasonally, sales pick up a bit in February and keep doing so until the typical peak in late summer, around July.  I’d expect that number of sales to improve over the next couple of months.  Not only is the expiration for the $8000 tax credit rapidly approaching, but we’re heading into our usual high season.  I know my inquiries and the activity on my sites has increased recently.

Inventory picked up a bit, to 7137 units, compared to 6879 last month, which doesn’t surprise me – often inventory goes up at this time.  What I didn’t like was that pending units were down to 1712, down from 1907 in January.  Pending sales are a leading indicator of closed sales – when pending sales are down, that usually means closed sales will be down the following month.  We’ll have to wait through March to find out for sure, but I’d hate to see pending sales drop any further over the next few months.  We’re in a rather unstable market, and a series of falling pending sales figures would mean things are getting worse.  A trend to watch, for sure.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory, stayed stable from last month, at 11.3 months.  That means roughly one in every eleven homes listed managed to sell and close.  Again, seasonally, we’d expect this inventory level to fall as sales pick up over the Summer.

The average sale price in Tucson was $207,918 with a median of $159,000.  Last year at this time, we were at an average of $217,491 with a median of $165,250 – a decline of just over 4%.

For comparison, the average single family home in Tucson cost $220,674, townhomes were just under $155,000, and the average condo sells at $106,500.

There were 63 closed short sales and 217 closed bank owned homes, out of the 630 units sold total, which is just over 44% of the resale market in Tucson.  Last month, were were at 45%, so distressed sales are holding steady for the month. 

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $218,681
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $169,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 531
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 10.8 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $178,974
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $139,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 54
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 12.1 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $117,250
• Condo Median Sales Price: $122,000
• Condo Units Sold: 25
• Condo Months of Inventory: 18.8 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $211,009
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $166,450
• Citywide Units Sold: 613
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 11.2 months

Well, we can certainly tell it is January.  This is typically the bottom of the winter slow down. 

Which is exactly what we are seeing.  There were only 613 sales recorded in January 2010, down from the 752 we had in December.  Inventory ticked up, to 6879 units.  Typically, this is what happens every January – sales go down, inventory goes up.  Fewer people look for homes during December, which makes for fewer January closings.  And more people wait to get through the holidays before listing their house in January.  All very typical for the season.

Given higher inventory and fewer sales, the absorption rate, or months of inventory, went up to 11.2 months.  That means roughly one in every 11 homes on the market managed to sell.  That’s the kind of absorption rate we were seeing at the start of 2009.  I’d predict that figure will slowly come down as we reach the April deadline for the tax credit, and then as we hit our high sales season in summer. 

The average sale price over all of Tucson came in at $211,009 with a median of $166,450.  The average stayed about the same from last month, while the median ticked up a bit.  Last year at this time, the average sales price was $217,491 with a median of $165,250.  Prices are still heading down, but much more slowly than before.

Of those 613 sales, 78 were short sales and 197 were foreclosed homes.  That makes distressed properties about 45% of the resale market in Tucson.  That’s a huge share.  Given distressed sales are becoming the rule and not the exception, home owners not in distress are having to price about the same as those foreclosed homes.  And that hurts.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $222,745
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 658
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.8 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $160,422
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $142,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 62
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 9.3 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $102,603
• Condo Median Sales Price: $99,750
• Condo Units Sold: 32
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $212,494
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $155,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 752
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 8.2 months

Happy New Year!  Let’s take a quick look back at December 2009…

We’re well into our seasonal winter slowdown.  The number of homes sold citywide was down 100 from last month, coming in at 752 units sold.  The number of homes for sale went down about 300 units – following our trend of decreasing inventory during nearly all of 2009.  Even though the number of active listings went down, the months of inventory, or absorption rate, ticked up a bit to 8.2 months.  It was 7.6 months in November. 

All of those things – very normal changes for the winter market in Tucson.

Pending sales ticked down about 150 units too, which isn’t surprising.  The urgency is off for home buyers until we get closer to that $8000 tax credit deadline in April.  And many people elect not to purchase and move during the winter holidays.

The average sales price citywide took a $17k jump over last month to $212,494 – but don’t get too excited about that.  The number of sales in the $500k plus price range doubled over last month, which would push up the average sales price.  There were 50 sales in the $500k range in December, and only 26 in November.  Could our high end vacation home buyers be making a small appearance this winter? 

That theory gets reinforced because the median sales price citywide took a $10k dip over last month, to $155k.  Last year at this time, the median sales price was $170,500.

Last year at this time, the average sales price was $206,981, for comparison.

Don’t forget to watch for the market reports for each part of town – there will be updates to those in the coming weeks: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $205,020
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $170,000
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 743
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $140,944
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $129,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.6 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $111,838
• Condo Median Sales Price: $100,750
• Condo Units Sold: 36
• Condo Months of Inventory: 12.9 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $195,721
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $165,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 850
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.6 months

Hello November!  The holiday season is upon us – bringing the yearly slow down in home sales in Tucson. 

If you look at the seasonal trends in the number of homes sold in Tucson citywide, you can see we traditionally peak around May and have slow winter sales.  I don’t expect this winter to be any different.  Sure, there’s a tax credit that might be an incentive for some, but there’s no urgency to move over the holidays for that – the deadline isn’t until the end of April 2010.

The average sale price dropped below $200k again, for the second time in 2009, coming in at $195,721, while the median is basically unchanged for the year.  Compared to the start of the year, the average sales price is down about 10% while the median sales price is the same. (Okay, it’s $250 less.  I’m calling that insignificant.)  Since the average is heading down and the median is holding steady, that tell us the lower end of the market is still moving and the higher end luxury homes are not.  There are more sales in those lower price brackets, enough to keep the median fairly steady, while the lack of sales of higher priced homes brings that average down.

The number of homes for sale were down a tiny bit, pending sales were down, and sales were down in November.  Pending sales went from 2060 to 1747 – but we expected that, right?  Remember, when that tax credit first came out, you had to close by the end of November.  It would make sense that there’d be a huge push to close those pending sales by the end of November.  Overall, sales were down 55 units, to 850.

We had 7.6 months of inventory at the end of November.  Compare that to 13.4 months in November 2008 and 11.4 months in November 2007 – overall, 2009 has been kinder than 2008.  Not that we’re out of trouble yet, but comparatively we’re making some improvements.

And, I’m happy to announce, the market reports for each area of town are ready to go.  If you read the blog, you’ll see those reports coming up in the next few weeks.  If you subscribe via email to only the market reports, then you won’t see those area reports unless you go looking for them here.  If you want any of those specific area reports via email, you can sign up for that on each area’s page.

This is the Central Tucson page, for example.  There’s no report yet (coming in a week or two), but the charts are all live, and you can subscribe to just the Central Tucson reports via email, if that’s an area you’re interested in.  So, for example, you can see the difference between the price of homes on the market and the price of homes that actually sold in Central.  Or the absorption rate for only single family homes in Central.  Or you can just look at townhomes in Central – see the number for sale versus the number sold. 

You get the idea.  And there’s one for each of the 9 major areas of Tucson: Northwest, North, Northeast, West, Central, East, Southwest, South, and Southeast.  If you find errors, have comments or suggestions, please let me know!

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

So I’m wondering, dear reader. 

If I were to produce another 9 market reports, one for each area of the city, would that be helpful?

We could dive into smaller regions of Tucson, see what’s moving and what isn’t and in what price ranges.  See where demand is, see how list and sales prices change over time and at what rates.

I was thinking we could look at 2-3 areas per week, spread them out over the month so you’re not inundated with 10 market reports in a day (if you’re reading this from the blog directly).  And if you’re subscribed to just the market reports via email now, you could also subscribe to the part of town you’re most interested in, track that market segment more closely.

Would that be helpful to you?  I’d love to hear your opinions.

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $210,522
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $167,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 801
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.9 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $139,228
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $125,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.7 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $102,581
• Condo Median Sales Price: $99,000
• Condo Units Sold: 33
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.0 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $200,993
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 905
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Turns out, October was a lot like September.  The average sales prices continue to drop, but the number of homes sold is increasing, the number of pending sales is still high, and the number of new listings is up a bit too.

All that activity is concentrated in the lower price ranges, especially in the sub $150,000 market.  In fact, there’s less than 5 months of inventory in that price range – meaning there is decent demand for those homes.  That would make sense, given the $8000 tax credit incentive to close before the end of November.  As I write this, the vote to extend the tax credit was passed by the Senate and was sitting in front of the House…

I’ve been asked several times about what the future for Tucson’s housing market holds.  There are so many factors – that tax credit extension, mortgage resets, the holidays coming up, there are too many to list.  I’m willing to say that our housing slide has slowed – at least for the time being, but I’m not convinced it has stopped.

Here’s why:

If you track the change in average and median sales price  month to month, you get an idea of the rate of change of the market – how fast it is going up or down.  So in 2006, every month the average sales price went down 0.4% on average.  The median sales price went down 0.1% on average.

If you look at 2008, you can see how bad of a year that was.  Home prices were falling fast – 2% a month on average. 

If you look at data from 2009 to date, we’re down 0.4% a month, which is slower than before.  Note that the median price drop on average per month is 0.7% – you can see the shift in the price ranges of homes that are selling because that median value is centered around the bulk of the sales happening in those lower price ranges.

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.