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The Tucson Food Dude

November 30, 2009

Ever since I figured out Google thought this blog was about Mexican food instead of real estate in Tucson, I stopped writing about my many favorite restaurants here.  But I discovered someone else has started writing about and reviewing local Tucson eateries!

Enter the Tucson Food Dude. 

Kevin is a self-proclaimed regular guy who likes to eat and drink.  And if that doesn’t qualify him to write about food, then I don’t know what does.    If you read back through his archives, there’s reviews of Candela, 1702, Cici’s Pizza Buffet, local wineries, and most recently – the new Azul at La Paloma.  I love that he covers a wide variety of places, and not just the high end stuff. 

Check out his blog – it is an entertaining read with fair reviews of local joints and thoughts on food and life in general.

Happy Thanksgiving!

November 26, 2009

Happy Thanksgiving to you!  This is one of my favorite times of year in Tucson – the days are still warm and the nights trend towards chilly.  The city is bustling with students and winter visitors, football games and street fairs and bike races.  It’s also a lovely time to sit and reflect on the many things we can be thankful for, both small and large.

I’m thankful to have a family that loves and accepts me, and for homemade pecan pie with the perfect dollop of whipped cream on top.  I’m thankful I live in a city where I can still find a sunbeam to bask in midday at the end of November.  For a tiny electric bill and being able to wear soft sweaters that stay stored away most of the year.  For a broker that supports and encourages me, and for my friends both near and far. 

And I’m thankful for you, dear reader, without whom I’d just be talking to myself.

Happy Thanksgiving.

photo courtesy of active metabolite via Flickr

Characteristics of Home Buyers and Sellers – from the NAR

November 23, 2009

Every year, the National Association of REALTORS surveys home buyers and sellers to gather information about the home buying and selling process, demographics of those people, housing characteristics, and whatnot.  The 2009 report just came out.  It’s interesting (to me, at least) to see how these trends change over time.

Highlights:

• 47% of recent home buyers were first time buyers.
• 10% of buyers purchased a home in foreclosure, up from 3% in 2008.
• 20% of those first time buyers said the loan application and approval process was somewhat more difficult than expected, with 10% saying it was much more difficult than expected.
• The biggest age group of home buyers were 25-34 years old – at 34%.
• Single females bought 25% of the homes purchased by first-timers.
• Top three factors influencing neighborhood choice by buyers were quality of the neighborhood, convenience to their job, and overall affordability of homes.
• 78% of buyers used the internet frequently as an information source.
• Home buyers looked at an average of 12 homes before making a selection.
• The primary reason for people to sell their home was for a job relocation, at 21% of home sellers, followed by those needing a larger home, at 19%.
• Recent sellers sold their homes for 95% of the listing price, with 60% reducing their asking price at least once. (this is the one I have trouble believing applies well to the Tucson area…)

By the way – the average home seller is 46 years old.  The average home buyer is 39 years old.  The average agent?  Is 54 years old, did 7 transactions in the last year, and earned a median income of $29,400. 

And 7% of us have blogs.

Tucson Market Reports – What are your thoughts on getting more specific?

November 19, 2009

You may have noticed I’m kind of a numbers geek.  I track some rather detailed statistics for the Tucson real estate market and make all kinds of lovely charts over on my Tucson market conditions site.  A lot of that data gets put into charts, but never really explained in any detail.  There’s data that I collect and analyze that I don’t even publish anywhere.  I do a monthly citywide market analysis – and warn you every month that the market in this city varies widely from one side to the other – but never really talk about those different areas.

So I’m wondering, dear reader. 

If I were to produce another 9 market reports, one for each area of the city, would that be helpful?

We could dive into smaller regions of Tucson, see what’s moving and what isn’t and in what price ranges.  See where demand is, see how list and sales prices change over time and at what rates.

I was thinking we could look at 2-3 areas per week, spread them out over the month so you’re not inundated with 10 market reports in a day (if you’re reading this from the blog directly).  And if you’re subscribed to just the market reports via email now, you could also subscribe to the part of town you’re most interested in, track that market segment more closely.

Would that be helpful to you?  I’d love to hear your opinions.

Home Prices near the University of Arizona

November 16, 2009

Got a question from a reader the other day about home prices near the University of Arizona.  In my October 2009 Market Report, I looked at how quickly home prices were decreasing per month, on average.  A reader asked me how the University area compared.

So.  If we look at the region between Stone and Country Club, Grant Road to Broadway, single family homes only, we find that the average home sales prices are:

 

2009 to date: $267,656

2008: $272,992

2007: $307,299

2006: $313,649

2005: $296,582

2004: $246,315

 

If we compare to Tucson area statistics, you can see the University area has higher average sales prices in general than the rest of Central Tucson.  This area includes some in-demand neighborhoods though: Sam Hughes, Blenman-Elm, West University – that tend to hold their value well. 

And like the rest of town, 2008 was a rough year for the average sales price.  In 2009 to date, we’ve had a much more moderate decline. 

Introducing… Electronic Signatures!

November 12, 2009

So by joining this new brokerage, I get to do some extra cool stuff.

And one small part of that is that my clients can sign all of their documents electronically, using some technology from a company called Docusign. 

This is a huge step forward for many reasons.  Instead of having to go back to the office where there is a printer and a copier and a fax machine to write an offer or create a repair request, we can create and sign contracts and offers and any paperwork from any computer with internet access.  (Did I mention I travel with a laptop and wi-fi?)  Instead of sending you paperwork at home to print and sign and fax back to me, you can log into your email and with just a few clicks, sign your documents and return them to me. No fuss, no muss, no reduction in quality of the document by printing and scanning or faxing several times.

Docusign is also integrated with something called ZipForms, which lets me create all of your paperwork and offers and contracts electronically.  There’s no concern that the agent on the other end can’t read the handwriting – everything is typed out neatly.  And there is no concern over ever losing original copies of those valuable contracts – they’re all stored and kept safely in ZipForms.

So the next time you need to sign paperwork, I’m going to tell you to look for an email.  When you open it, you’ll click two checkboxes that say you agree this is your signature, and then you just click right next to the big yellow "SIGN HERE" tabs.  So you’ll never miss a signature or line where you’re supposed to initial.  And when you’re done, I know immediately, so I can forward that on to the other agent.

Which makes us, hopefully, faster and more responsive than the next guy.  And that’s a powerful thing.

Tax Credit Extended – and Expanded to Include Current Homeowners

November 9, 2009

Well, Friday it became official.  Remember that $8000 tax credit I kept talking about where you had to be a first time buyer and close before the end of November 2009?  It’s been extended – and expanded.

If you’re a first time buyer, you don’t have to rush to close before the end of November any more to get your $8000 tax credit.  Now, you have to be in a written binding purchase contract by April 30, 2010, and have to close before July 1, 2010.

Additionally, income limits have been raised for the program: to $125,000 if you’re single and $225,000 if you’re married.

The additional big news is that if you already own a home, you can get up to $6500 as a tax credit incentive to purchase.  They define home owner as someone who has used a home sold or being sold as a principal residence consecutively for 5 of the previous 8 years.

Whether you’re a first time buyer or an existing home owner, there are now limits on the home price.  You can buy up to $800,000 and still get the credit.

There are a couple other smaller details as well – the National Association of REALTORs put out a helpful little chart to help you figure out if you qualify for the tax credit.  They also have some questions an answers here, to help clarify the rules. 

Tucson Market Statistics and Report – October 2009

November 6, 2009

The Quick Numbers:

• Single Family Home Average Sales Price: $210,522
• Single Family Home Median Sales Price: $167,500
• Single Family Home Units Sold: 801
• Single Family Home Months of Inventory: 6.9 months

• Townhouse Average Sales Price: $139,228
• Townhouse Median Sales Price: $125,000
• Townhouse Units Sold: 71
• Townhouse Months of Inventory: 8.7 months

• Condo Average Sales Price: $102,581
• Condo Median Sales Price: $99,000
• Condo Units Sold: 33
• Condo Months of Inventory: 13.0 months

• Citywide Average Sales Price: $200,993
• Citywide Median Sales Price: $160,000
• Citywide Units Sold: 905
• Citywide Months of Inventory: 7.2 months

Turns out, October was a lot like September.  The average sales prices continue to drop, but the number of homes sold is increasing, the number of pending sales is still high, and the number of new listings is up a bit too.

All that activity is concentrated in the lower price ranges, especially in the sub $150,000 market.  In fact, there’s less than 5 months of inventory in that price range – meaning there is decent demand for those homes.  That would make sense, given the $8000 tax credit incentive to close before the end of November.  As I write this, the vote to extend the tax credit was passed by the Senate and was sitting in front of the House…

I’ve been asked several times about what the future for Tucson’s housing market holds.  There are so many factors – that tax credit extension, mortgage resets, the holidays coming up, there are too many to list.  I’m willing to say that our housing slide has slowed – at least for the time being, but I’m not convinced it has stopped.

Here’s why:

 

If you track the change in average and median sales price  month to month, you get an idea of the rate of change of the market – how fast it is going up or down.  So in 2006, every month the average sales price went down 0.4% on average.  The median sales price went down 0.1% on average.

If you look at 2008, you can see how bad of a year that was.  Home prices were falling fast – 2% a month on average. 

If you look at data from 2009 to date, we’re down 0.4% a month, which is slower than before.  Note that the median price drop on average per month is 0.7% – you can see the shift in the price ranges of homes that are selling because that median value is centered around the bulk of the sales happening in those lower price ranges.

As always, there are extensive charts and statistics and whatnot, broken down by area and type of housing, over at my Tucson market statistics site. The market in this city varies widely from one end to the other, so you can check out what’s going on in your area over at that section of my site.

Data gathered from the Tucson MLS and is deemed reliable but not guaranteed. Figures quoted here include only single family homes, townhomes, and condos in the 9 areas that make up the Greater Tucson Area: NW, N, NE, W, C, E, SW, S, and SE.

Grant Road Improvement Workshops

November 4, 2009

The Grant Road widening project continues to make plans.  Construction isn’t due to start until 2013, but they’ve made a lot of plans and decisions already.

There are workshops in two weeks for the public to discuss how businesses and neighborhoods will be accessed from the new Grant Road.  If you live anywhere along that corridor, or have interests in those businesses, it might be useful to attend.

If you do, you’ll learn about how drivers will enter/exit the roadway using shared driveways and new median openings.  You’ll also be able to provide input on the preliminary design, the streetscape, the landscape, and public art.

The Grant Road task force would appreciate an RSVP though, by emailing information@grantroad.info, or by calling (520) 624-4727.

To discuss Swan to Country Club area, the workshop is November 16th, 5:30-8:30pm at the Tucson Association of Realtors office, 2445 N Tucson Blvd.

To discuss Oracle to 1st Ave, the workshop is November 18th, 5:30-8:30pm at the Pima Downtown Campus Amethyst Room, Building CC, room 180 at 1225 N Stone.

To discuss 1st Ave to Country Club, the workshop is November 19th, 5:30-8:30pm at the Tucson Association of Realtors office, 2445 N Tucson Blvd.

As always, you can find more info at the Grant Road project site – www.GrantRoad.info.

Will Mortgage Rates and Home Prices Continue to Decline in Tucson?

November 2, 2009

Question from the blog today – will rates and home prices keep going down?

Answer – depends on what time period you look at. 

Let’s start with home prices.  Will they continue to go down over the next month?  Most certainly.  Over the next year?  It’s likely.  Over the next 5 years?  Maybe not.  Over such a long term, there’s no way to accurately predict.

If you look at the average sales price for homes in Tucson over the last few years, you can see the decline.  I’d argue that the drop in home prices is slowing a bit, but there are several factors in play that could make that change – the availability of financing, the levels of inventory, the economy as a whole impacting salaries and the ability to buy and sell a home.

If we look at mortgage rates, there’s some seasonality there too.  I talked about that earlier in this post about rates going up or down.  History says rates go down in the fall.  But again, there are larger factors at play. 

AND – rates are changing rather quickly, as Dan points out in this article about how long a rate quote lasts over the past 2 months.  Lenders are changing their pricing often, which changes your rate often. 

So why ask if rates and prices will continue to decline?  Trying to time the market, buy at the best possible price and rate?  I guess you can try.  But you’ll never know if we’re really at bottom until we’ve already left it.  It’s all just part of the risk you take by deciding to buy or sell at any particular time.

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