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Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 26, 2010

Like the rest of the city, sales were down in January.  It’s a seasonal trend – January tends to be the slowest month for closed sales, usually accompanied with a bump in inventory from those who waited through the holidays to list their homes.

There were 55 sales in Southwest Tucson in January 2010 – 52 single family homes and 3 townhomes.  There’s just not a whole lot of townhomes in that region.

Inventory was up slightly, about 20 units overall, to 441 homes listed for sale.  With 55 sales, that gives Southwest Tucson 8 months of inventory – meaning about one in every 8 homes listed actually managed to sell.  During most of 2009, we saw much lower levels of inventory, tending to be in the 4-6 month range.  Given January is seasonally slow, the bump up to 8 months doesn’t alarm me too much.

Prices are still on the way down in the area.  The average home cost $118,743, with a median of $107,000.  Last month, the average home was $122,229, and last January, the average home was $132,790.  That’s a year over year decline in home values of just under 11%.

Of the 55 sales, 29 were foreclosed homes and 11 were short sales, making distressed property 73% of the market in Southwest Tucson.  Not the highest percentage of distressed property in the city – I believe it comes in second to South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$150,255	$107,547	$148,027	-0.5%
Avg SP	$118,743	$104,167	$117,948	-3.5%
Med SP	$107,000	$105,000	$105,000	-12.0%
#Listed	418	23	441	5.3%
#Sold	52	3	55	-40.2%
MOI	8.0 months	7.7 months	8.0 months	76.1%

East Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 26, 2010

East Tucson continues a slow decline as we see the seasonal effect of a slower market in January, as we do every January. 

The average house price was $166,786, with a median of $158,500.  That’s down roughly $4k from last month and about $13k from last year at this time.  In January 2009, the average house cost $181,074 with a median of $162,750.

There were a handful of townhomes and condos that sold in East Tucson.  An average townhome cost $124,075 while a condo was $99,133.

Sales were down as well, but that is typical for the season.  There were 37 houses that sold, along with 8 townhomes and 3 condos, for a total of 48 units.  With 534 units listed, that means there is 11.1 months of inventory.  With only one in roughly eleven homes selling in the month, there is a lot of competition for the limited number of buyers.

Out of those 48 homes that sold, 9 were short sales and 13 were bank owned homes.  That makes distressed property nearly 46% of the housing market in East Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my East Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$213,566	$122,782	$71,500	$186,485	-3.8%
Avg SP	$166,786	$124,075	$99,133	$158,201	-1.8%
Med SP	$158,500	$119,500	$90,000	$149,250	-1.6%
#Listed	410	65	60	534	18.4%
#Sold	37	8	3	48	-7.7%
MOI	11.1 months	8.1 months	20 months	11.1 months	28.3%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 26, 2010

South Tucson home prices have been bouncing between about $90,000 and $100,000 for a good year now.  January just continued that trend.

The average home cost $96,244, with a median of $96,000 – both of those values are higher than last month.  For comparison, last year at this time, the average house cost $112,944 with a median of $110,000 – a year over year decline in house values of nearly 15%.

Sales were down a little bit, as tends to happen in January.  There were 73 houses and one townhome that sold in South Tucson, for a total of 74 units.  Inventory has been slowly declining for at least a year and a half.  Even when sales dip slightly, the lower inventory keeps a little better balance in this small section of the market.  There were 6.2 months of inventory of single family homes in South Tucson – on the high side of what we’d normally consider balanced.

In my humble opinion, the lower inventory levels are what are keeping prices bouncing in that range for a year.  If that’s true, then it is interesting that one of the hardest hit parts of town is seemingly also the first to show the most sign of recovery.  Or at least of a bottom to the decline.  Only time will tell – there are too many uncertainties to make strong predictions.

Of those 74 sales, 15 were short sales and 45 were foreclosed property, making distressed home sales 81% of the market in South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$114,655	$64,407	$111,607	-3.5%
Avg SP	$96,244	$89,900	$96,159	4.3%
Med SP	$96,000	$89,900	$94,000	4.4%
#Listed	449	29	478	-1.2%
#Sold	73	1	74	-7.5%
MOI	6.2 months	29 months	6.5 months	6.8%

Tucson Market Value and Pricing Tactics

February 24, 2010

I had a client looking at a property the other day, listed at an incredibly low price.  By the time they made a decision and got a lender approval letter (this is why we get these BEFORE we shop for homes!), there were already 9 other offers, bidding up the price at least $30k.

This is a marketing strategy, a pricing tactic – start it out extra low, get competition, and hope the bidding takes the sales price back up closer to value.

It also means that when you go to make offers on a property, you need to base that offer on market value, not on the current list price.  Market value is what a buyer is willing to pay and a seller willing to accept for a property – generally determined by looking at similar sales in the area and making adjustments for condition, location, and amenities.

Market value has nothing to do with the list price.  Or how much it cost to build the house.  Or what the Seller bought it for.  Or what your friends bought a house for on the other side of town, 5 years ago.

Moreover, even in this market where the media is screaming at home buyers that they have all the power and that homes are selling for pennies on the dollar – that’s not exactly true.  There are others like you.  And you’re all competing for the best properties at the lowest price.  When that fabulous house pops up at an insanely low price – you will be competing for it.  No, not for every home.  Lots of homes sit forever on the market.  But the good ones at the good prices go fast.

Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

Northwest Tucson had a slow January – just like every other January. 

Of 2144 homes listed for sale, 173 sold.  Most of those were single family homes – 155 of them.  The rest were condos and townhomes.

The average single family  house cost $254,365 with a median of $219,000, down from last month, but very much in line with the average and median for 2009.  In fact, in January 2009, the average was $277,512 with a median of $212,000, a year over year decline of 8%.

The average townhome was $174,888 and the average condo was $128,933 last month.  Because there are so many fewer townhome and condo sales, there tends to be a lot of bounce in those numbers.

The absorption rate, or months of inventory in Northwest Tucson overall was 12.4 months, meaning a little worse than one out of every 12 houses listed found a buyer and closed.  Last January, we were at 16 months of inventory, but Northwest Tucson tended to stay between 7 and 9 months of inventory during 2009.  Given the January slow down, I’d expect to see improvement in those numbers in the upcoming summer peak – especially with the buyer tax credit needing home buyers to be under contract by the end of April.

Of the 173 sales in Northwest Tucson, 22 were short sales and 49 were foreclosed property.  That makes distressed property 41% of the housing market in Northwest Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$375,981	$226,959	$135,265	$361,736	-2.6%
Avg SP	$254,365	$174,888	$128,933	$244,237	-9.2%
Med SP	$219,000	$202,000	$153,833	$212,000	1.0%
#Listed	1958	147	43	2144	15%
#Sold	155	11	7	173	-7.5%
MOI	12.6 months	13.4 months	6.1 months	12.4 months	24.3%

Southeast Tucson Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

Not a single condo or townhome sale in Southeast Tucson in January 2010.  There aren’t that many in the area to begin with though.

The average single family home cost $176,096 with a median of $157,700, down about $25k from last month.  That’s the lowest average sales price we’ve seen in the area for many years (and the second lowest median).  Last January, the average home set you back $201,390 with a median of $171,000, giving us a year over year decline in home values of  nearly 13%.

Of the 560 single family homes listed, 58 sold – which are fairly typical values for the Winter slowdown.  That means there was 9.7 months of inventory in January, also called the absorption rate.  I’d expect that number to improve over the next few months as we hit the deadline for the home buyer tax credit and the summer bump in sales.

There were 11 closed short sales and 16 foreclosed properties that sold in January 2010.  With 58 total sales, that makes distressed properties nearly 47% of the market in Southeast Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$255,009	$91,173	$247,208	-3.2%
Avg SP	$176,096	n/a	$176,096	-14.7%
Med SP	$157,700	n/a	$157,700	-12.4%
#Listed	560	28	588	10.5%
#Sold	58	0	58	-25.6%
MOI	9.7 months	n/a	10.1 months	48.6%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

January is the slowest month, and this year is no exception.

In Central Tucson, there were 993 listings and 71 sales – very similar to what we saw in January 2009.  Last month, we had 888 listings and 109 sales.  You can see how things die down in January.  Typically, we’ll see sales pick up a bit over Spring into early Summer, and then taper off again around August.

There were 14 months of inventory overall in Central Tucson – meaning one in roughly 14 homes listed managed to sell.  Last January, we were at 13.4 months, and last month, we were at 8.2 months. 

Home values are down as well.  The average single family home in Central Tucson cost $162,275 in January 2010, with a median value of $134,500.  Last year at this time, the average single family home cost $174,634 with a median of $135,000, a year over year decline of 7%.  Which sounds like a whole lot – until you realize that the year over year decline in home values in Central from January 2008 to January 2009 was nearly 22%.

Of the 71 homes that sold, 5 were closed short sales and 23 were foreclosed property, making distressed sales 39% of the housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$230,352	$163,338	$131,535	$208,762	-1.2%
Avg SP	$162,675	$126,900	$58,125	$153,257	-0.1%
Med SP	$134,500	$102,000	$43,500	$122,000	-4.3%
#Listed	740	112	141	993	11.8%
#Sold	60	7	4	71	-34.9%
MOI	12.3 months	16.0 months	35.3 months	14.0 months	71.7%

Arrested for Destroying a Foreclosed Home

February 21, 2010

News from Chandler, Arizona, the other day – a neighbor spotted a homeowner taking stuff out of his house, a house scheduled to be auctioned at foreclosure.  And the neighbor called the police.

He wasn’t taking out the furniture.  He was taking the air conditioners, the water heater, the doors, cabinets, counters, light fixtures.  The story is here. 

That’s quite illegal (and helps to bring down property values in the area besides).  When you get a loan on a home, you promise to keep it in good shape.  You’re not just committing to making payments.  The article says he was arrested for criminal damage and defrauding a secure creditor.

I had wondered when we would start seeing these kinds of events.  And if banks will ever start going after owners who destroy the home before the foreclosure auction.  Though I imagine it isn’t worth the effort it would take to track down the owners, press charges, try to gather proof, rack up legal fees, try to collect damages from someone who most likely has no means.

Saying Goodbye

February 18, 2010

I’ll miss you, Grammy.

You were kind and loving, quick with a smile, a demon at cards, and your popovers and fudge always came out perfect.  You brought grace and happiness to us all.  And I love you.

Goodbye.

Your Secrets Are Safe With Me

February 17, 2010

You ever notice how when people are excited about something they like to share it with their friends?

I’ve got lot of clients who are excited about buying a home in Tucson and excitedly talk to their friends about the homes, share their thoughts, get feedback from people they trust.  Which is a lovely thing, I think.

The problem comes in when they come to me and ask how their friend’s home buying experience is going.  Because I really can’t answer that.

As an agent, I have fiduciary duties to my clients.  Fiduciary duties are:

• confidentiality
• accounting for documents and money
• reasonable skill and care
• loyalty
• obedience
• disclosure

So when your friend wants to have a nice chat about your home search, well, I’m just not comfortable answering.  I don’t want to violate any confidentiality between you and I.  And while you may not care if your friends know everything about your purchase, I’m never going to make that assumption.

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