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West Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 30, 2010

Like the rest of the city, West Tucson saw an increase in sales volume, but prices didn’t really move.

There were 53 units sold in March, up from 34 the previous month.  Last year, that seemed to be a sustainable sales volume over the Summer, we’ll have to see if it holds out for the rest of this Summer.

Inventory went up a bit to 450 units.  Since sales were up and inventory was up only slightly, the absorption rate went down to 8.5 months overall.  That means roughly one in every eight-and-a-half homes found a buyer and sold in March.  A balanced market is usually considered to be 5-6 months of supply.

The average single family home in West Tucson cost $199,023 with a median of $156,450.  Last year at this time, the average house cost $172,600 with a median of $145,000 – a level lower than what was typical at the time.

The most expensive sale in West Tucson was a newer home in Starr Pass (technically Fox Hideaway) for $799,000.  It was a 4 bed, 3561 square foot home on half an acre, with some lovely city and mountain views.  The custom homes in Starr Pass have sold recently between $400k and $855k.

Of the 53 sales, 5 were short sales and 17 were bank owned homes, giving distressed property in West Tucson a 42% market share.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my West Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$327,725	0.3%	$115,973	11.3%	$66,966	-23.1%	$273,050	-4.5%
Avg SP	$199,023	0.5%	$89,500	-2.7%	$85,900	-6.5%	$184,354	2.8%
Med SP	$156,450	8.7%	$90,000	-9.1%	$87,300	-5.0%	$150,000	16.1%
#Listed	347	4.5%	46	15.0%	57	78.1%	450	11.4%
#Sold	46	64.3%	4	-20.0%	3	200%	53	55.9%
MOI	7.5 months	-36.4%	11.5 months	43.8%	19 months	-40.6%	8.5 months	-28.5%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 30, 2010

Wow.  Sales nearly doubled between February and March in Central Tucson.  That was a HUGE increase in activity!  I’m betting these levels aren’t sustainable, but it is nice to see some Spring activity anyway.

There were 152 units sold in March in Central Tucson, up from 78 last month.  Normally sales start to pick up a bit in the Spring, peak in Summer, and taper off in the fall.  We’re certainly seeing the increase right now – normally we don’t see these kinds of sales levels until much later in the Summer.  I would hope sales would stay high for a few months, but perhaps not quite at these levels.  Only time will tell, eh?

Inventory went up a bit to 1129 units, a small increase over last month.  With higher sales and more or less stable inventory, the absorption rate, or months of inventory figure dropped to 7.4 months overall.  That means a little less than one in every 7 homes listed managed to find a buyer and close.  Normally, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months of inventory. 

The average home cost $151,696 with a median of $130,000 – both an increase over last month but lower than last year.  Last year at this time, the average house sold for $188,198 with a median of $161,500 – a year over year decrease in Central Tucson home values of a whopping 19%.

The most expensive sale in Central Tucson was at $585,000 for a newer 2511 square foot home on a third acre lot in the Parade Grounds, the historic Ft. Lowell region.

Of 152 homes sold, 35 were bank owned homes and 14 were short sales.  That makes distressed properties 32% of the resale housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$277,281	20.9%	$164,911	1.1%	$123,723	-6.8%	$207,147	-1.0%
Avg SP	$151,696	9.6%	$127,541	21.9%	$80,755	11.6%	$144,019	14.2%
Med SP	$130,000	19.8%	$107,050	9.2%	$76,400	17.5%	$126,700	29.3%
#Listed	855	6.5%	137	9.6%	137	0%	1129	6.0%
#Sold	125	108.3%	16	128.6%	11	0%	152	94.9%
MOI	6.8 months	-48.9%	8.6 months	-52.1%	12.5 months	0%	7.4 months	-45.6%

East Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 30, 2010

East Tucson continues to follow the seasonal trend – sales picked up a bit, absorption rate inched down.

Overall, there were 75 homes sold in March in East Tucson, up from 51 last month.  That’s a very similar level of sales to what we saw last year – other areas of town had huge jumps in sales levels while the East side had a more typical month.

Listings were up just a tad, to 582 units.  With the increase in sales, the absorption rate (or months of inventory) decreased to 7.76 months.  That means just under 1 in every 8 homes listed managed to find a buyer and close.  Typically, a balanced market is considered the 5-6 month range.

Average home prices decreased ever so slightly, but the median increased – there were fewer higher priced sales, but more activity in the middle ranges.  The average house cost $162,838 with a median of $158,000.  Last year at this time, the average house cost $188,704 with a median of $165,999 – a year over year decrease in East Tucson home values of 13.7%

The most expensive home sold in East Tucson was a 3 bed, 2042 square foot home on a huge lot in Silverado Hills that sold for $295,000.  Recent sales in the area are between $165k and $295k.

There were19 bank owned homes and 9 short sales that closed in March in East Tucson, making distressed property 37% of the resale housing market there.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my East Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$212,177	0.3%	$121,452	-3.8%	$70,364	-1.9%	$186,860	0.9%
Avg SP	$162,838	-4.5%	$114,125	17.1%	$48,948	-4.0%	$151,568	-3.6%
Med SP	$158,000	1.3%	$122,750	18.6%	$44,020	-35.3%	$153,500	6.6%
#Listed	450	7.7%	78	9.9%	54	-10.0%	582	6.0%
#Sold	63	43.2%	8	100%	4	33.3%	75	47.1%
MOI	7.1 months	-24.8%	9.8 months	-45.1%	13.5 months	-32.5%	7.8 months	-27.9%

Why You Need a Pre-Approval Before Shopping for a Tucson Home

April 29, 2010

I’ve had a couple of calls recently from folks that seem to be leery of talking to a lender.  They want to go look at homes around Tucson, but aren’t willing to have a 20 minute conversation with a lender first.

So let’s dispel some fears and misconceptions.

First, having your credit pulled to see what kind of loan you qualify for doesn’t really hurt your credit score – estimates are that you’ll get dinged about 5 points.  But you’ve got to do it to get the loan.  Good news is that you can have as many lenders you want to talk to pull your credit score in 14 days, and it only counts as one time.  So whether you talk to one lender or ten, it all only counts once.

Second, you need a preapproval from a lender in order to make an offer on a house.  In 7 years practicing real estate in Tucson, I’ve never seen a seller accept an offer where a Buyer didn’t provide a lender signed loan approval. 

It doesn’t make sense to go out and shop for homes when you can’t buy the one you want when you find it!  Not having that pre-approval in hand puts you in a position where you can’t act on the right house when you find it.

And finally, until you’ve talked to a lender, you have no idea what kind of payment you’ll have.  Yes, you can go online and fill out loan payment calculators, but your interest rate is heavily influenced by how much you have to put down and what kind of credit score you have.  And only a lender can tell you what rates apply to you and your specific situation.

Getting a pre-approval is a relatively painless process for most people.  And it puts you in a position where you have the most power and knowledge and control over your home purchase.  If you need a good lender recommendation, contact me and I’ll share!

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 26, 2010

Sales picked up quite a bit in North Tucson in March – with exactly half the sales being at $350k or below.  The lower end market is what is driving activity in the area, but that’s no surprise.

There were 102 sales in March, up from 57 last month.  Typically sales tend to increase as we get into our Summer months, but that was a bit larger jump than I expected.  We saw jumps like that nearly all over Tucson in March.  I don’t think we can sustain those kinds of levels, especially in North Tucson – there haven’t been 100+ sales there in two years.

Inventory dropped slightly from 867 to 852 units.  With the large unit sales increase, that means the absorption rate made a huge improvement to 8.4 months of inventory.  That means a little better than one out of every 8 homes listed managed to find a buyer and close – normally a figure we don’t see at that level until the very height of the Summer sales season.

The average home cost $571,932, with a median of $419,500.  Last year at this time, the average house cost $521,809 with a median of $425,000 – a small increase year over year, but generally due to the small number of sales and the high variance in these market figures for the area.

There’s a decent town home and condo market in North Tucson.  Townhomes fared best, with 26 sales and only 4.6 months of inventory.  The average townhome cost $262,654.  Condos are still in oversupply with 9 sales and 17.6 months of inventory.  The average condo in North Tucson cost $145,767.

Of the 102 sales, 6 were short sales and 7 were bank owned homes, making distressed sales 12.7% of the resale housing market in North Tucson.

The most expensive sale in March in North Tucson was a huge 6400 square foot home in Ventana Canyon that sold for $2.2mil – a lovely Tuscan in Tucson with jaw-dropping city views. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$852,573	-2.7%	$291,988	-1.5%	$163,541	5.9%	$645,839	0.6%
Avg SP	$571,932	-9.2%	$262,654	16.9%	$145,767	-12.7%	$455,488	16.0%
Med SP	$419,500	-20.1%	$245,000	0.8%	$137,000	-20.1%	$352,500	13.7%
#Listed	574	2.3%	120	-3.2%	158	-13.2%	852	-1.7%
#Sold	67	131%	26	62.5%	9	-25.0%	102	78.9%
MOI	8.6 months	-55.7%	4.6 months	-40.4%	17.6 months	15.8%	8.4 months	-45.1%

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 26, 2010

Northeast Tucson is one of the only areas of Tucson to not see a large increase in sales between February and March.  While the rest of the city made a huge leap up, there were only a handful more sale in the Northeast.  Typically, sales start to rise about this time into the seasonal Summer high season.

There were 43 sales in Northeast Tucson, and 501 homes listed, both slight increases over last month.  There’s still quite an oversupply of homes, however, at 11.7 months overall.  That means roughly one out of every dozen homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Typically, we’ll see that absorption rate improve a bit over summer.

The average house cost $345,056 in March with a median of $289,900 – the low end in the Northeast is moving much better than the higher end homes.  Last year at this time, the average home sale price was $338,786 with a median of $276,000 – not really a large jump considering there are relatively few sales and therefore a lot of variability in the stats for this area.

There’s a small townhome market in Northeast Tucson – the average townhome cost $174,833.  There’s also a handful of condos, mostly lower end and closer to the city.  The average condo sold for $62,950 in March.

Of 43 sales, 5 were bank owned homes and 4 were short sales, making distressed homes nearly 21% of the Northeast Tucson resale housing market.

The most expensive sale in March in Northeast Tucson was at $730,000 for a large 3700 custom home on nearly an acre in Bear Creek Estates in a very Southwestern style and with nice mountain views. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$564,742	-2.7%	$196,348	-7.1%	$65,818	-10.2%	$493,474	-4.1%
Avg SP	$345,056	-2.6%	$174,833	26.6%	$62,950	n/a	$308,183	-2.9%
Med SP	$289,900	11.5%	$172,000	20.3%	$62,950	n/a	$283,000	22.5%
#Listed	414	1.7%	59	7.3%	28	21.7%	501	3.3%
#Sold	35	2.9%	6	-14.3%	2	n/a	43	4.9%
MOI	11.8 months	-1.2%	9.8 months	25.2%	14.0 mos	n/a	11.7 months	-1.5%

Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 26, 2010

Quite a few sales in Northwest Tucson in March – 40% more than last month, actually.  Nearly all of the city saw large jumps in sales in March.  In Northwest Tucson, most of the sales were $200k and less.  That low end of the market is what is driving sales right now.

There were 268 sales in March, up from 191 last month.  I don’t expect sales levels like that to be sustainable, especially as the $8000 tax credit expires at the end of April.  Sales typically rise into the Summer, so it makes sense for sales to increase, but the levels we saw in March were quite high.

Inventory went up slightly, from 2179 units to 2206 units.  Because the number of homes for sale more or less stayed even and sales rose, the absorption rate dropped from 11.4 to 8.2 months, which is a huge improvement.  That means roughly one in every 8 homes listed found a buyer and closed in March.

The average house cost $261,813 with a median of $210,000 in March, down slightly from last month.  Last time at this year, the average house cost $263,759 with a median of $218,500 – not really much movement year over year.

There’s a small townhome and condo market in Northwest Tucson.  The typical townhome cost $164,865, and the average condo was $47,500 – quite different price brackets between condos and townhomes.

Of 268 sales, 55 were bank owned homes and 25 were short sales.  That makes distressed home sales nearly 30% of the Northwest Tucson resale housing market.

The most expensive sale in Northwest Tucson was at $1.8mil, an enormous home just under 6000 square feet in Stone Canyon up in Oro Valley.  Looks like a spec home, never lived in.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$371,166	-1.6%	$225,938	0.1%	$159,270	9.6%	$356,777	-1.5%
Avg SP	$261,813	-5.6%	$164,865	-9.6%	$60,900	-22.1%	$251,166	-4.2%
Med SP	$210,000	-7.0%	$150,000	-2.8%	$47,500	3.3%	$205,500	-6.5%
#Listed	2009	1.0%	150	5.6%	47	-2.1%	2206	1.2%
#Sold	245	46.7%	17	-5.6%	6	0%	268	40.3%
MOI	8.2 months	-31.2%	8.8 months	11.8%	7.8 months	-2.1%	8.2 months	-27.8%

Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 20, 2010

Unusual for the Southwest side of Tucson in March was a home that sold for $530,000 – there hasn’t been a sale that high since mid 2008.  The high sale didn’t really impact the average sale prices, however, as there was enough activity at the lower end to reduce any skew from that one large sale.

The average home cost $124,517, with a median of $115,000.  Last year at this time, the average home cost $130,676 with a median of $125,000 – year over year decrease in home values of 4.7%. 

On the more positive side, there were 90 homes sold in March, a huge increase over the 55 sales in February.  Typically, unit sales increase over Summer, but we saw larger increases in sales across the city than I anticipated.  I’m not sure these levels are sustainable, but only time will tell.

Inventory went up 2 units to 463 homes for sale.  With the increase in sales and steady inventory, the absorption rate improved, it went down.  There were 5.1 months of inventory in March, meaning roughly one in every 5 homes listed found a buyer and closed.  Typically, 5-6 months of inventory is considered balanced, and the Southwest side has been flirting with that range for nearly a year.

Biggest selling subdivision was Star Valley with 21 sales – Star Valley is a master planned community in the further reaches of the Southwest side. 

Of the 90 sales, 14 were short sales and 45 were bank owned homes, making distressed homes 66% of the resale housing market in Southwest Tucson

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$141,299	-4.3%	$103,566	0.9%	$139,099	-4.1%
Avg SP	$124,517	1.7%	$46,310	-59.7%	$121,910	-0.3%
Med SP	$115,000	-2.5%	$45,000	-60.9%	$144,950	25.0%
#Listed	436	0.2%	27	3.8%	463	0.4%
#Sold	87	61.1%	3	200%	90	63.6%
MOI	5.0 months	-37.8%	9.0 months	-65.4%	5.1 months	-38.6%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 20, 2010

Home sales picked up quite a bit in south Tucson in March 2010.  There were 99 homes sold in March, compared to 66 homes the previous month.  Sales in the area tend to increase over the Summer months, but we haven’t seen 99 sales in the region for at least two years. 

Inventory went up very slightly – there were 509 homes listed in March compared to 502 last month.  Because inventory stayed more or less stable and the number of sales spiked, the absorption rate went down to 5.1 months overall.  5.1 months of inventory is not unusual for the area over the past year.  The low prices and newer homes are attractive to first time buyers, and those people are a huge segment of our market right now.

The average home cost $104,170 with a median of $96,000, an improvement over last month.  Last year at this time, the typical house cost $93,285 with a median of $90,000 – but I wouldn’t say prices are rising in the area.  They’ve been bouncing a bit between the $90ks and the low $100ks for a year now.

Highest sale price in the area was a brand new Lennar home down in Sycamore Park Village for $263,000 – a large 4 bedroom home at just under 3000 square feet.  Recently, sales in that subdivision range between $140k for the smaller homes, up to $280k for the larger ones.

Of the 99 sales, 50 were bank owned homes and 12 were short sales, making distressed homes 63% of the resale housing market in South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$111,223	-1.8%	$66,826	3.5%	$109,217	-1.3%
Avg SP	$104,170	16.1%	$67,750	26.2%	$103,434	17.4%
Med SP	$96,000	12.9%	$67,750	39.7%	$95,000	13.8%
#Listed	486	2.3%	23	-14.8%	509	1.4%
#Sold	97	54.0%	2	-33.3%	99	50.0%
MOI	5.0 months	-33.5%	11.5 months	27.8%	5.1 months	-32.4%

Southeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 20, 2010

March was an excellent month for Southeast Tucson.  The number of sales nearly doubled and average prices ticked up slightly.

There were 103 houses sold in Southeast Tucson in March, compared to 57 the previous month, which is a large increase.  Usually, the number of sales increase over Summer, but this was a bit larger jump that I was expecting!  I would guess sales will stay strong through Summer, but possibly not at this high of a level.

The number of homes for sale went up slightly – 30 units – to 658 homes.  With 103 sales, that gives us an absorption rate of 6.4 months overall, 6.4 months of inventory.  That means roughly one in every six homes listed for sale managed to find a buyer in March 2010.  Usually a balanced market is somewhere around 5-6 months of inventory.

The average house in Southeast Tucson cost $181,198 in March, an increase of about $17k from last month.  Last year at this time, the average house cost $194,994 in Southeast Tucson – a year over year decline of 7%.  The average townhome cost $66,743 in March.  There were only 7 townhomes that sold, so there’s a lot of volatility in that average.

Out of the 103 sales, 10  were short sales and 37 bank owned homes.  That makes distressed sales just under 46% of the housing market in Southeast Tucson.

Notable in March was a sale in Coyote Creek, the highest sale price of all homes in Southeast Tucson that month, at $510,000.  It was a bank owned home, not completely finished.  The last sales in Coyote Creek were at $465k and $375k over the last 6 months – and homes for sale in Coyote Creek range from $450k-$890k right now.  The high end market just isn’t moving

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$249,921	-4.2%	$81,696	-5.6%	$243,530	-4.3%
Avg SP	$181,198	10.7%	$66,743	-27.9%	$173,420	9.3%
Med SP	$165,950	3.8%	$76,500	-17.3%	$163,000	6.5%
#Listed	633	4.8%	25	8.7%	658	4.9%
#Sold	96	81.1%	7	75.0%	103	80.7%
MOI	6.6 months	-42.1%	3.6 months	-37.9%	6.4 months	-41.9%

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