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Southeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 30, 2010

Lower end homes were selling quickly in April in Southeast Tucson, and there was one luxury home sale in a price bracket where there have been no sales for several years.

Overall, there were 100 sales – 98 houses and 2 townhome/condos.  That’s 3 units off from last month in a season where sales volumes should be going up.  However, March set some unrealistic sales expectations.  I’m a little surprised that there were even 100 in April.

Inventory moved only 10 units, coming in at 668 homes on the market.  With sales steady, the inventory rate only went up very slightly to 6.7 months.  That means one in nearly every 7 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Balanced market in this area is usually  more like 5-6 months.

The average single family home cost $183,398 with a median of $158,000.  That’s a $2k jump from last month, but there was one high end sale, so I’m not paying much attention to the change.  More telling is the median price going from $165,950 to $158,000 in a month.  Prices are still on their way down here, even with unseasonally high levels of sales.

There were 25 foreclosures and 10 short sales that closed in Southeast Tucson in April, making distressed homes 35% of the resale market in the area.  Last month, that was 46%.

The big sale was an enormous 70 acre parcel, near the Coyote Creek subdivision, rather rustic in style.  They found a cash buyer too and the buyer’s agent is not listed.  Tax records haven’t been updated yet, but I’m wondering if a company bought it.  Civano had a good April too, with 4 units selling.  

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

East Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 30, 2010

East Tucson didn’t have the best April.  I see some warning signs of decline here, more so than in other regions.

For example.  Sales didn’t go up between March and April, when traditionally they would.  There were 74 sales in April, which is close to the 75 we had last month.  Now, granted, last month was an insane level of sales that I don’t think is sustainable, but I don’t like the steady sales figure in combination with some other factors.

Other factors like the inventory going up.  Normally, inventory should be going down right now, if you look at seasonal trends.  Right now, there are more homes for sale in East Tucson than there have been in 2 years.  There are 619 homes on the market in East Tucson.  With 74 sales, that means the absorption rate worsened to 8.4 months.  That means roughly one in every 8 homes found a buyer and sold.

Which, also, isn’t terrible when you look at it alone.  But in combination with not as many sales AND with the median sales price going down, you’ve got 3 factors in combination that set off alarms in my head. 

The average sales price actually ticked up a bit, but there were 2 sales in price brackets that haven’t had sales in a while.  The average home cost $167,238 – up $4500 from last month – but the median came in at $153,500, down $4500 from last month.  Again, not a huge move, but I don’t like the 3 factors in combination.

There were 6 closed short sales and 27 closed foreclosures in East Tucson in April, making distressed property 45% of the market in the region.

Silverado Hills, one of my favorite East side communities, only had 2 sales in April, leaving 26 homes waiting for buyers.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my East Tucson Market page.

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 30, 2010

Sales were up again in Northeast Tucson in April, though average prices took a small dip.

Overall, there were 53 sales in Northeast Tucson – 43 houses, 9 townhomes, and 1 condo.  Last month, there were 43 sales, and last year at this time, there were 44, so we’re had a bit more activity than usual.

Inventory held steady, down 2 units from last month to 499 homes listed in the Northeast side.  Because inventory stayed stable and sales picked up, the absorption rate went down.  There was 9.4 months of inventory in Northeast Tucson in April – meaning one in a little more than 9 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  The Northeast side tends to carry higher inventory levels than the rest of town anyway, so 9 months is a decent figure for the area.

The average home in Northeast Tucson sold for $311,911, with a median of $285,000.  That’s a $30k drop from last month, but because of the relatively low number of units sold, there’s quite a bit of variation month to month in values.  Last year at the time, the average home cost $329,428 with a median of $276,944 – that’s a 5% decline in Tucson home values, year over year in the region.

There were 11 foreclosed homes and 5 short sales that sold and closed in April in Northeast Tucson, making distressed homes 30% of the resale market in the area. 

Sabino Springs had 2 sales – two of the smaller homes sold, though there’s still 19 others in the community looking for Buyers.  And Lakes at Castle Rock had a whopping 4 sales, with only 10 left in the community for sale.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

South Tucson continues to have one of the lowest absorption rates in the city, and the average prices in the area have sort of leveled off for now.  Watching the number of active listings in South Tucson will be key, I believe, as a glut of homes in this area would certainly trigger another gigantic price drop.  Three years ago, homes in South Tucson regularly sold for twice what they do now.  It was hit so hard with foreclosures and short sales…

On to the numbers.

There were 96 sales in April in South Tucson – 91 homes and 5 townhome/condos.  This is more or less the same level as last month (99 sales), which is a decent sales pace for the time of year.

Inventory stayed roughly the same as well.  I found 511 active listings when I pulled my numbers, up from 509 last month.  With both inventory and sales on pace, the absorption rate was 5.3 months in April.  That means one in every 5 homes managed to find a buyer and close. 

Looking back, the absorption rate has stayed in more or less the same range since early 2009 – and the home prices in South Tucson leveled off at the same time.  It’s a good example of how inventory effects prices.  When supply and demand became somewhat balanced, prices stopped dropping like a rock.  There’s small fluctuations, yes, but no big moves.

Speaking of prices, the average home in South Tucson sold for $98,001 with a median of $95,000.  Last year at this time, the average sales price was $91,909 with a median of $85,000.

There were 13 short sales and 46 foreclosures that sold in South Tucson in April, making distressed property 61% of the housing market in South Tucson.

Tres Pueblos had a whopping 9 sales – every single one of them a distress sale with 4 short sales and 5 bank owned homes.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

Central Tucson is one of the few parts of town that kept up the ridiculous pace of sales set in March.  I feel like a broken record saying this so many times, but I look at the number of sales and can’t help but think it isn’t sustainable – though I would expect a decent rate of sales over the Summer.

153 homes sold in Central Tucson – 122 single family houses, 18 townhomes, and 13 condos.  Last month, there were 152 sales, which was double the value seen in February – just look at the chart, it’s easier to see than to explain.  See that spike up at the end?  Normally we don’t see that big of a spike just yet, we’re a couple months early from the seasonal trend.

Inventory went up just a bit when normally it should be coming down over Summer.  Central Tucson went from 1129 to 1150 listings.  It’s not a huge increase, but still.  I don’t like the trend.  If inventory keeps going up, that means sales prices must go down.  It’s basic supply and demand.

That being said, the absorption rate stayed nearly the same as last month, since sales were so high.  Central Tucson had 7.5 months of inventory in April which means one in every 7.5 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Generally, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months of inventory. 

The average single family home in Central Tucson cost $176,154 with a median of $142,250, an increase of 16% over last month – but nearly the same as where we were at this time last year.  In April 2009, the average home sales price was $170,846 with a median of $150k.

There were 35 foreclosed homes and 6 short sales that closed in Central Tucson in April, making distressed homes nearly 27% of the housing market in the region.

One of my favorite Central Tucson neighborhoods, Broadmoor, had 3 sales in April, which is quite a few given the smallish nature of the neighborhood.  And there was one high end sale in Colonia Solana – if I had the money, that’d be my first choice of neighborhood.  The high sale in Colonia Solana was for $900,000 – over 5000 square feet of house and guest house from the 1930s, on a little under an acre of land, nicely updated but done in the original style.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

Sales were down a bit in North Tucson compared to last month, but this isn’t surprising.  Last month’s sales figures were way out of line for typical.

In all of North Tucson, there were 77 sales – 42 single family homes, 21 town homes, and 14 condos.  Seasonally, sales tend to bump up a bit over the summer months.  If we call March an anomaly, then April falls pretty true to trend.

What I don’t like is the inventory bump.  A small one, true, but the number of listings should typically be going down over summer, not up.  With 872 properties for sale in North Tucson, that’s the highest level of active homes we’ve seen in a year.

With inventory up, the absorption rate changed to 11.3 months of inventory.  That means roughly one in every 11 homes for sale managed to find a buyer and close.  11.3 months of inventory is pretty much the same level that we saw all winter in North Tucson.  With Summer being an expected peak, we ought to see the absorption rate decrease – and that’s not really happening yet.

The average home sales price took a dip in April too – but bear in mind there were fewer high end sales.  Last month, the average house in North Tucson cost $571,932 with a median of $419,500.  This month, the average home cost $526,617, with a median of $427,000.  Condo and townhome prices more or less held steady, month over month.

Overall, there were 3 short sale and 9 foreclosed homes that sold,  making distressed property a mere 15.6% of the resale housing market in North Tucson – a very small share, comparatively. 

Cimarron Foothills Estates had 3 homes that sold in April – a big month for that subdivision.  And looking at the Greens at Ventana Canyon, I’m thinking that condo conversion managed to have some of the highest priced sales compared to other condo conversion projects in the area.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

Little Things – Fun in La Paloma

May 25, 2010

I was up at a home inspection in La Paloma this morning bright and early.  In fact, I got there early enough to have some time to drive around and enjoy the scenery for a bit. 

First was this tiny little egg, which made me look up and find the nest, nestled way up in the tree.  I have no idea what kind of tree that is, but it dropped whatever sort of bean pod is sitting beside the egg.

Can you find the bunny?  He sat there for quite a while and let me take his picture.  This is from the golf course at La Paloma – I love the cityscape in the background and the blooming saguaro.  Now if only my photo skills were up to par.  Haha.  Bad golf joke.  Okay, moving on…

La Paloma is certainly lovely to drive through.  There’s nice medians between lanes with lovely plants.  The blooming season is just about over, but there are still pops of color along the way.  To the North sit the Catalina Mountains, so you have nice mountain views in one direction and city lights in the other.

La Paloma is a gated community in North Tucson.  You can see all homes for sale in La Paloma here.

Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 24, 2010

Sales took a little dip in April in Southwest Tucson, but I’m not sure that’s alarming.  The figures we saw for March were way out of line for what was expected, seasonally.

There were 76 sales in April – 72 homes and 4 townhomes.  Last year at this time, there were only 59 sales, and last month there were 90.  76 seems like a reasonable number for the area in April.

Inventory ticked up slightly from 463 units to 479 units.  With sales down during the month, the absorption rate, or months of inventory, increased to 6.3 months overall in Southwest Tucson.  That means roughly one in every 6 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Typically, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months.  The Southwest has a history of very high and very low inventory swings over the past few years.  Seeing a nice moderate absorption rate is a good sign for the area.

The average home sales price ticked up a bit too, to $128,918, up from $124,517 last month, and from $120,136 last year at this time.  However, the median went down from $115k to $110k – a sign there may be more room for prices to fall in the region.

There were 40 foreclosures and 12 short sales that closed in Southwest Tucson in April, making distressed property a whopping 68% of the resale real estate market in that region.

There was a $500k sale in Southwest Tucson, which is unusual for the area – a custom home in Starr Ridge with insane mountain views.  As in the mountain is in the back yard.  Very nice.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.

Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 24, 2010

Northwest Tucson had a very good April.  Inventory was down, sales were up, and prices stayed roughly the same. 

Overall, there were 2179 homes for sale and 329 sales in Northwest Tucson.  That’s a bit less inventory than last month, and an increase of sales 22% over last month.  It appears we’re starting our summer peak season, which normally tops out around July.

Just looking at single family homes, there were 1981 listed and 303 sales, which means there was 6.5 months of inventory, a level we haven’t seen since the peak of the season last year in July.  Generally, a balanced market is somewhere between 5-6 months of inventory.  That means roughly one in every 6.5 homes listed – oh, let’s just call it 2 of every 13 homes – found a buyer and sold.  It’s a decent pace for summer, coming out of a rough winter.  We’ll have to see how much of that is activity spurred by the now-expired tax credit.

The average single family home in Northwest Tucson cost $264,283, up $2500 from last month.  The median remained the same, at $210,000.  Overall, prices aren’t moving anywhere quickly. 

There was one very high end sale this month in Northwest Tucson, an “eco-luxe villa” in Miraval that went for $2,195,000.  The bulk of sales in Northwest Tucson continue to be in the $150k-250k price range for neighborhoods like Continental Ranch and Rancho Vistoso.

There were 71 foreclosed homes that sold, and 40 short sales, making distressed property just under 34% of the resale housing market in Northwest Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.

West Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 24, 2010

April on the West side of Tucson brought a decent increase in sales and lower inventory overall. 

There were 63 sold homes in April overall – 53 houses, 2 townhomes, and 8 condos.  Seasonally, we should be starting our run up in sales that we see every summer, but right now we’re already at the sales units we saw last year at our peak.  The question is how many of those are tax credit buyers and how many are just regular home buyers making their typical purchases at this time of year. 

Inventory went down a bit, from 450 homes to 433.  With the increase in sales and the reduction of inventory, the absorption rate fell to 6.9 months – that means roughly one in every 7 homes found a buyer and sold.  Typically, a balanced market is considered to be in the 5-6 month range.  In the past year, it hasn’t been usual for the West side of Tucson to have that kind of lowish absorption rate.

The average West Tucson single family home cost $200,228 with a median of $172,500 in April.  That average price is just $1000 higher than last month, but the median has been moving up for 2 months now.  There were more condo sales in April than typical, which are usually  low end sales.  In order for the median to move up like that when the West side has more condo sales, there were more higher end sales.  Last month, there were only 12 sales higher than $200k.  This month, there were 20.

There were 9 short sales and 19 foreclosed homes that sold in West Tucson in April, making distressed property 44% of the West Tucson real estate market.

Starr Pass had a big April with 8 sales in the community.  In that were 3 of the Moonrise at Starr Pass condos, and one was the most expensive house sold on the West side in April, in the Wildcat Pass portion of Starr Pass – a lovely custom home on a half acre only 2 years old for $855k.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my West Tucson Market page.

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