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Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

January is the slowest month, and this year is no exception.

In Central Tucson, there were 993 listings and 71 sales – very similar to what we saw in January 2009.  Last month, we had 888 listings and 109 sales.  You can see how things die down in January.  Typically, we’ll see sales pick up a bit over Spring into early Summer, and then taper off again around August.

There were 14 months of inventory overall in Central Tucson – meaning one in roughly 14 homes listed managed to sell.  Last January, we were at 13.4 months, and last month, we were at 8.2 months. 

Home values are down as well.  The average single family home in Central Tucson cost $162,275 in January 2010, with a median value of $134,500.  Last year at this time, the average single family home cost $174,634 with a median of $135,000, a year over year decline of 7%.  Which sounds like a whole lot – until you realize that the year over year decline in home values in Central from January 2008 to January 2009 was nearly 22%.

Of the 71 homes that sold, 5 were closed short sales and 23 were foreclosed property, making distressed sales 39% of the housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$230,352	$163,338	$131,535	$208,762	-1.2%
Avg SP	$162,675	$126,900	$58,125	$153,257	-0.1%
Med SP	$134,500	$102,000	$43,500	$122,000	-4.3%
#Listed	740	112	141	993	11.8%
#Sold	60	7	4	71	-34.9%
MOI	12.3 months	16.0 months	35.3 months	14.0 months	71.7%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

January 25, 2010

Central Tucson always has a strong seasonal sales trend – more sales in summer, fewer over winter.  There were 888 homes listed and 109 sales in December 2009, just a bit off from the previous month.

That gives Central Tucson an overall absorption rate of 8.2 months – meaning one in 8 units on the market (roughly) manage to sell.  If you just look at single family homes, that figure improves to 7 months.  Absorption rate tends to move inversely to sales – sales go up, months of inventory goes down, assuming no major shifts in the number of homes for sale. 

The condo market – like most of the condo market across Tucson – is flooded.  143 for sale, and 4 that closed in December 2009.  Condo prices are dropping fast due to the glut of inventory.  The average condo cost $56,375.

Townhomes fare a little better – a little less inventory, a few more sales – but town home prices are still on the decline overall.  A typical townhome cost $111,445 in December 2009 in Central Tucson. 

The average house cost $164k.  December 08, the average house cost $179k, showing a year over year decline in values of 8%.

Of the 109 sales, 11 were short sales and 36 were foreclosed homes, making distressed sales 43% of the market. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$237,050	0.2%	$163,500	-5.2%	$130,713	-1.0%	$211,229	-0.6%
Avg SP	$164,084	1.3%	$111,445	2.1%	$56,375	-43.3%	$153,370	0.1%
Med SP	$142,900	-4.7%	$106,600	-16.7%	$51,500	-45.5%	$127,500	-12.7%
#Listed	640	-6.4%	105	-10.3%	143	-1.4%	888	-6.1%
#Sold	91	-6.2%	14	7.7%	4	-20.0%	109	-5.2%
MOI	7.0 months	-0.3%	7.5 months	-16.7%	35.8 months	23.3%	8.2 months	-1.0%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

January 1, 2010

Seasonally, we’ve entered the winter slow down in home sales for Central Tucson.  You can see the pattern clearly if you look at the chart of number of homes sold in Central Tucson.  Sales tend to taper off over winter and start to pick back up shortly into the new year.

There were 115 units sold total in November 2009, most of which were single family homes.  There were 97 houses sold and 684 listed, giving homes an absorption rate of 7.1 – for every seven listings, one sold.  Townhomes and condos make up the remainder of the sales.

The average house cost $161,942 with a median of $149,900.  Last November, a typical single family house cost $185,495 – a year over year decline of nearly 13%.

House prices in Central Tucson took a sharp dive in 2008 and – while still on the decline – have slowed their descent somewhat.  Largely, this is due to a slow decrease in inventory and an increase in sales, largely at the low end of the market.  Lots of first time buyers in Central Tucson taking advantage of that $8000 tax credit.  You can see how the activity is clustered at the lower ranges of the market in this sales vs list price distribution chart.

Townhomes fared better than condos in November – the difference between buying the average townhome and the average condo is about $10,000.  Townhomes tend to be less like apartments than condos.  If buyers can reach that extra $10k to buy the townhome instead of the condo, they do.

Out of the 115 total sales, 8 were short sales, and 26 were foreclosures.  That means distressed homes are nearly 30% of the Central Tucson housing market.  Given distressed property sales tend to be at a discount, that’s going to continue to drag down average sale prices and market values in the area.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$236,495	+0.7%	$172,504	+0.4%	$132,033	-4.0%	$212,569	0%
Avg SP	$161,942	-12.7%	$109,150	-7.0%	$99,400	+15.2%	$153,255	-11.1%
Med SP	$149,900	-0.1%	$128,000	+20.8%	$94,500	+18.1%	$146,000	+0.9%
#Listed	684	-0.7%	117	-4.9%	145	+5.8%	946	-0.3%
#Sold	97	-7.6%	13	-7.1%	5	-28.6%	115	-8.7%
MOI	7.1	+7.5%	9.0	+2.4%	29.0	+48.2%	8.2	+9.2%

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