• Home
• Buy
• Sell
• Statistics
• Neighborhoods
• Loans
• Search Tucson MLS
• About Tucson
• Blog

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

Central Tucson is one of the few parts of town that kept up the ridiculous pace of sales set in March.  I feel like a broken record saying this so many times, but I look at the number of sales and can’t help but think it isn’t sustainable – though I would expect a decent rate of sales over the Summer.

153 homes sold in Central Tucson – 122 single family houses, 18 townhomes, and 13 condos.  Last month, there were 152 sales, which was double the value seen in February – just look at the chart, it’s easier to see than to explain.  See that spike up at the end?  Normally we don’t see that big of a spike just yet, we’re a couple months early from the seasonal trend.

Inventory went up just a bit when normally it should be coming down over Summer.  Central Tucson went from 1129 to 1150 listings.  It’s not a huge increase, but still.  I don’t like the trend.  If inventory keeps going up, that means sales prices must go down.  It’s basic supply and demand.

That being said, the absorption rate stayed nearly the same as last month, since sales were so high.  Central Tucson had 7.5 months of inventory in April which means one in every 7.5 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Generally, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months of inventory. 

The average single family home in Central Tucson cost $176,154 with a median of $142,250, an increase of 16% over last month – but nearly the same as where we were at this time last year.  In April 2009, the average home sales price was $170,846 with a median of $150k.

There were 35 foreclosed homes and 6 short sales that closed in Central Tucson in April, making distressed homes nearly 27% of the housing market in the region.

One of my favorite Central Tucson neighborhoods, Broadmoor, had 3 sales in April, which is quite a few given the smallish nature of the neighborhood.  And there was one high end sale in Colonia Solana – if I had the money, that’d be my first choice of neighborhood.  The high sale in Colonia Solana was for $900,000 – over 5000 square feet of house and guest house from the 1930s, on a little under an acre of land, nicely updated but done in the original style.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 30, 2010

Wow.  Sales nearly doubled between February and March in Central Tucson.  That was a HUGE increase in activity!  I’m betting these levels aren’t sustainable, but it is nice to see some Spring activity anyway.

There were 152 units sold in March in Central Tucson, up from 78 last month.  Normally sales start to pick up a bit in the Spring, peak in Summer, and taper off in the fall.  We’re certainly seeing the increase right now – normally we don’t see these kinds of sales levels until much later in the Summer.  I would hope sales would stay high for a few months, but perhaps not quite at these levels.  Only time will tell, eh?

Inventory went up a bit to 1129 units, a small increase over last month.  With higher sales and more or less stable inventory, the absorption rate, or months of inventory figure dropped to 7.4 months overall.  That means a little less than one in every 7 homes listed managed to find a buyer and close.  Normally, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months of inventory. 

The average home cost $151,696 with a median of $130,000 – both an increase over last month but lower than last year.  Last year at this time, the average house sold for $188,198 with a median of $161,500 – a year over year decrease in Central Tucson home values of a whopping 19%.

The most expensive sale in Central Tucson was at $585,000 for a newer 2511 square foot home on a third acre lot in the Parade Grounds, the historic Ft. Lowell region.

Of 152 homes sold, 35 were bank owned homes and 14 were short sales.  That makes distressed properties 32% of the resale housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$277,281	20.9%	$164,911	1.1%	$123,723	-6.8%	$207,147	-1.0%
Avg SP	$151,696	9.6%	$127,541	21.9%	$80,755	11.6%	$144,019	14.2%
Med SP	$130,000	19.8%	$107,050	9.2%	$76,400	17.5%	$126,700	29.3%
#Listed	855	6.5%	137	9.6%	137	0%	1129	6.0%
#Sold	125	108.3%	16	128.6%	11	0%	152	94.9%
MOI	6.8 months	-48.9%	8.6 months	-52.1%	12.5 months	0%	7.4 months	-45.6%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010

March 16, 2010

At first glance, February was an ugly month for Central Tucson with a capital U.

The average house sales price took a huge dive, as did the median.  The number of sales remained the same while inventory increased.

Then again, it didn’t help that over half the sales in Central were under $100k – an atypical month, for sure.  Usually the $100k sales are closer to a third of the market – not half of it.

Which helps to explain why the average sales price was $138,427, down from $162,675 last month.  The median came in at $108,500, down from $134,500 last month.  Clearly, we saw a large shift in February in Central Tucson.  The number of houses for sale ticked up a bit to 803 homes, and 60 of them sold.  That means there is just over a 13 month supply of houses in Central Tucson – one out of every 13 listed are selling.  Hopefully, those are all figures that will improve over the high summer sales season. 

Townhomes and condos are a small portion of the Central Tucson market.  The average townhome cost $104,607 while a typical condo will set you back $72,346. 

Country Club Manor and San Gabriel were both popular subdivisions in Central Tucson in February, with 3 sales each.

Of the 78 sales, 4 were short sales and 33 were bank owned homes, making distressed homes 47% of the housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$229,389	$163,195	$132,724	$209,185	0.2%
Avg SP	$138,427	$104,607	$72,346	$126,073	-17.7%
Med SP	$108,500	$98,000	$65,000	$98,000	-19.7%
#Listed	803	125	137	1065	7.3%
#Sold	60	7	11	78	9.9%
MOI	13.4 months	17.9 months	12.5 months	13.7 months	-2.4%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

January is the slowest month, and this year is no exception.

In Central Tucson, there were 993 listings and 71 sales – very similar to what we saw in January 2009.  Last month, we had 888 listings and 109 sales.  You can see how things die down in January.  Typically, we’ll see sales pick up a bit over Spring into early Summer, and then taper off again around August.

There were 14 months of inventory overall in Central Tucson – meaning one in roughly 14 homes listed managed to sell.  Last January, we were at 13.4 months, and last month, we were at 8.2 months. 

Home values are down as well.  The average single family home in Central Tucson cost $162,275 in January 2010, with a median value of $134,500.  Last year at this time, the average single family home cost $174,634 with a median of $135,000, a year over year decline of 7%.  Which sounds like a whole lot – until you realize that the year over year decline in home values in Central from January 2008 to January 2009 was nearly 22%.

Of the 71 homes that sold, 5 were closed short sales and 23 were foreclosed property, making distressed sales 39% of the housing market in Central Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$230,352	$163,338	$131,535	$208,762	-1.2%
Avg SP	$162,675	$126,900	$58,125	$153,257	-0.1%
Med SP	$134,500	$102,000	$43,500	$122,000	-4.3%
#Listed	740	112	141	993	11.8%
#Sold	60	7	4	71	-34.9%
MOI	12.3 months	16.0 months	35.3 months	14.0 months	71.7%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

January 25, 2010

Central Tucson always has a strong seasonal sales trend – more sales in summer, fewer over winter.  There were 888 homes listed and 109 sales in December 2009, just a bit off from the previous month.

That gives Central Tucson an overall absorption rate of 8.2 months – meaning one in 8 units on the market (roughly) manage to sell.  If you just look at single family homes, that figure improves to 7 months.  Absorption rate tends to move inversely to sales – sales go up, months of inventory goes down, assuming no major shifts in the number of homes for sale. 

The condo market – like most of the condo market across Tucson – is flooded.  143 for sale, and 4 that closed in December 2009.  Condo prices are dropping fast due to the glut of inventory.  The average condo cost $56,375.

Townhomes fare a little better – a little less inventory, a few more sales – but town home prices are still on the decline overall.  A typical townhome cost $111,445 in December 2009 in Central Tucson. 

The average house cost $164k.  December 08, the average house cost $179k, showing a year over year decline in values of 8%.

Of the 109 sales, 11 were short sales and 36 were foreclosed homes, making distressed sales 43% of the market. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$237,050	0.2%	$163,500	-5.2%	$130,713	-1.0%	$211,229	-0.6%
Avg SP	$164,084	1.3%	$111,445	2.1%	$56,375	-43.3%	$153,370	0.1%
Med SP	$142,900	-4.7%	$106,600	-16.7%	$51,500	-45.5%	$127,500	-12.7%
#Listed	640	-6.4%	105	-10.3%	143	-1.4%	888	-6.1%
#Sold	91	-6.2%	14	7.7%	4	-20.0%	109	-5.2%
MOI	7.0 months	-0.3%	7.5 months	-16.7%	35.8 months	23.3%	8.2 months	-1.0%

Central Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

January 1, 2010

Seasonally, we’ve entered the winter slow down in home sales for Central Tucson.  You can see the pattern clearly if you look at the chart of number of homes sold in Central Tucson.  Sales tend to taper off over winter and start to pick back up shortly into the new year.

There were 115 units sold total in November 2009, most of which were single family homes.  There were 97 houses sold and 684 listed, giving homes an absorption rate of 7.1 – for every seven listings, one sold.  Townhomes and condos make up the remainder of the sales.

The average house cost $161,942 with a median of $149,900.  Last November, a typical single family house cost $185,495 – a year over year decline of nearly 13%.

House prices in Central Tucson took a sharp dive in 2008 and – while still on the decline – have slowed their descent somewhat.  Largely, this is due to a slow decrease in inventory and an increase in sales, largely at the low end of the market.  Lots of first time buyers in Central Tucson taking advantage of that $8000 tax credit.  You can see how the activity is clustered at the lower ranges of the market in this sales vs list price distribution chart.

Townhomes fared better than condos in November – the difference between buying the average townhome and the average condo is about $10,000.  Townhomes tend to be less like apartments than condos.  If buyers can reach that extra $10k to buy the townhome instead of the condo, they do.

Out of the 115 total sales, 8 were short sales, and 26 were foreclosures.  That means distressed homes are nearly 30% of the Central Tucson housing market.  Given distressed property sales tend to be at a discount, that’s going to continue to drag down average sale prices and market values in the area.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Central Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$236,495	+0.7%	$172,504	+0.4%	$132,033	-4.0%	$212,569	0%
Avg SP	$161,942	-12.7%	$109,150	-7.0%	$99,400	+15.2%	$153,255	-11.1%
Med SP	$149,900	-0.1%	$128,000	+20.8%	$94,500	+18.1%	$146,000	+0.9%
#Listed	684	-0.7%	117	-4.9%	145	+5.8%	946	-0.3%
#Sold	97	-7.6%	13	-7.1%	5	-28.6%	115	-8.7%
MOI	7.1	+7.5%	9.0	+2.4%	29.0	+48.2%	8.2	+9.2%

Copyright © 2010 Tucson Homes, Neighborhoods, and Real Estate from Housechick.com