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North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

Sales were down a bit in North Tucson compared to last month, but this isn’t surprising.  Last month’s sales figures were way out of line for typical.

In all of North Tucson, there were 77 sales – 42 single family homes, 21 town homes, and 14 condos.  Seasonally, sales tend to bump up a bit over the summer months.  If we call March an anomaly, then April falls pretty true to trend.

What I don’t like is the inventory bump.  A small one, true, but the number of listings should typically be going down over summer, not up.  With 872 properties for sale in North Tucson, that’s the highest level of active homes we’ve seen in a year.

With inventory up, the absorption rate changed to 11.3 months of inventory.  That means roughly one in every 11 homes for sale managed to find a buyer and close.  11.3 months of inventory is pretty much the same level that we saw all winter in North Tucson.  With Summer being an expected peak, we ought to see the absorption rate decrease – and that’s not really happening yet.

The average home sales price took a dip in April too – but bear in mind there were fewer high end sales.  Last month, the average house in North Tucson cost $571,932 with a median of $419,500.  This month, the average home cost $526,617, with a median of $427,000.  Condo and townhome prices more or less held steady, month over month.

Overall, there were 3 short sale and 9 foreclosed homes that sold,  making distressed property a mere 15.6% of the resale housing market in North Tucson – a very small share, comparatively. 

Cimarron Foothills Estates had 3 homes that sold in April – a big month for that subdivision.  And looking at the Greens at Ventana Canyon, I’m thinking that condo conversion managed to have some of the highest priced sales compared to other condo conversion projects in the area.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 26, 2010

Sales picked up quite a bit in North Tucson in March – with exactly half the sales being at $350k or below.  The lower end market is what is driving activity in the area, but that’s no surprise.

There were 102 sales in March, up from 57 last month.  Typically sales tend to increase as we get into our Summer months, but that was a bit larger jump than I expected.  We saw jumps like that nearly all over Tucson in March.  I don’t think we can sustain those kinds of levels, especially in North Tucson – there haven’t been 100+ sales there in two years.

Inventory dropped slightly from 867 to 852 units.  With the large unit sales increase, that means the absorption rate made a huge improvement to 8.4 months of inventory.  That means a little better than one out of every 8 homes listed managed to find a buyer and close – normally a figure we don’t see at that level until the very height of the Summer sales season.

The average home cost $571,932, with a median of $419,500.  Last year at this time, the average house cost $521,809 with a median of $425,000 – a small increase year over year, but generally due to the small number of sales and the high variance in these market figures for the area.

There’s a decent town home and condo market in North Tucson.  Townhomes fared best, with 26 sales and only 4.6 months of inventory.  The average townhome cost $262,654.  Condos are still in oversupply with 9 sales and 17.6 months of inventory.  The average condo in North Tucson cost $145,767.

Of the 102 sales, 6 were short sales and 7 were bank owned homes, making distressed sales 12.7% of the resale housing market in North Tucson.

The most expensive sale in March in North Tucson was a huge 6400 square foot home in Ventana Canyon that sold for $2.2mil – a lovely Tuscan in Tucson with jaw-dropping city views. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$852,573	-2.7%	$291,988	-1.5%	$163,541	5.9%	$645,839	0.6%
Avg SP	$571,932	-9.2%	$262,654	16.9%	$145,767	-12.7%	$455,488	16.0%
Med SP	$419,500	-20.1%	$245,000	0.8%	$137,000	-20.1%	$352,500	13.7%
#Listed	574	2.3%	120	-3.2%	158	-13.2%	852	-1.7%
#Sold	67	131%	26	62.5%	9	-25.0%	102	78.9%
MOI	8.6 months	-55.7%	4.6 months	-40.4%	17.6 months	15.8%	8.4 months	-45.1%

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010

March 16, 2010

While sales units were down, prices took a decent bump in North Tucson in February.  I looked to justify the increase with the two higher end sales, but there were enough high end sales last month to make the 2 larger ones this month not skew things.

Townhomes and condos were hot over February, with 28 sales between the two types – nearly half of all the sales in North Tucson were a condo or townhome.  The average condo cost $167,050, while the average town house cost $224,688.  The condo market, in particular, remains flooded however, with 15 months of inventory.

The single family housing market is over-supplied as well, though the bulk of that inventory is at the high end.  In the over $500k price range, there’s 27 months of inventory, while there’s a lower 12-ish months of inventory in the under $500k range.  That high end market is just overwhelmed with inventory.

The average single family home in North Tucson cost $629,613, with a median of $525,000.  Last month, the average price was $535,001, nearly a $100k increase.  Last year at this time, the average house sales price was $523,438 with a median of $477,500.  If you look at the trend of average and median North Tucson sale prices, there’s a little bit of waver, but generally things have leveled off over the past 6 months or so.

Canyon View at Ventana sold more units than any other condo complex, and more homes sold in the various Catalina Foothills Estates than any other subdivision.  Plus, there were 2 sales in Pima Canyon, where there hasn’t been a sale since October 2009.

Of 57 homes sold, 6 were bank owned homes and 3 were short sales.  That makes distressed sales just under 16% of the resale market in North Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$876,627	$296,415	$154,486	$642,053	-2.9%
Avg SP	$629,613	$224,688	$167,050	$392,500	-4.0%
Med SP	$525,000	$243,000	$171,500	$310,000	-9.5%
#Listed	561	124	182	867	5.5%
#Sold	29	16	12	57	-12.3%
MOI	19.3 months	7.8 months	15.2 months	15.2 months	20.3%

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

March 3, 2010

Did North Tucson do anything over the last 12 months?  Not a whole lot, turns out.

In January 2010, the average house cost $535,001 with a median of $412,500.

In January 2009, the average house cost $535,563 with a median of $412,000.

Nearly identical.  Of course, that one fact doesn’t mean the market hasn’t moved at all.  It has.  Just slowly, and in a downward direction.

There’s a decent townhome and condo market in North Tucson.  The average townhome cost $281,467 and there was a 7.9 month supply – the townhomes are selling at a decent rate.  Condos, on the other hand, had 15.7 months of inventory – the condo market remains flooded.  The average condo will set you back $146,110 in North Tucson. 

Overall, there were 38 houses, 15 townhomes, and 11 condos that sold in North Tucson, for a total of 65 units sold.  With 822 homes listed, that’s 12.7 months of inventory.  Last January?  Only 31 sales.  Things are moving a little better in our Northern region, even in a slower seasonal month.

Of the 65 sales, 1 was a short sale and and 5 were bank owned homes, making distressed property sales only 9% of the market in North Tucson – I believe that’s the lowest proportion of distressed sale in all of Tucson this month.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$905,391	$299,439	$157,447	$660,991	1.5%
Avg SP	$535,001	$281,467	$146,110	$408,738	-9.9%
Med SP	$412,500	$319,000	$144,000	$342,500	-9.2%
#Listed	531	118	173	822	12.8%
#Sold	38	15	11	65	0%
MOI	14.0 months	7.9 months	15.7 months	12.7 months	12.8%

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

January 25, 2010

North Tucson is actually several markets in one.  There’s the condos, there’s the lower end homes, and the luxury market.  And they’re all doing different things.

The condos are still in trouble.  There is an oversupply and low demand – months of inventory were at 15.8 months in December 2009 for North Tucson.  Prices continue to generally decline.  Over much of 2009, condo prices were swinging around the $150k mark.  There was a slight tick up in December 2009 to $164k, but I do not interpret that as a trend.

Lower end homes make up the bulk of the sales in North Tucson – and “lower end” in North Tucson means $350k – $500k.  The median sales price of a single family home has been in the mid $400ks all year.  In December, it was $475k. 

And then there is the luxury market.  Or the lack thereof, might be a more accurate statement.  See how the average home list price was $908k and the average sale price was $579k?  That shows you the enormous glut of high end properties sitting on the market and not selling.  In the $800k+ price range, there were 7 sales and 145 units for sale.  that’s nearly 21 months of inventory.  HUGE imbalance of supply and demand.

Of the 65 sales, 3 were short sales and 10 were foreclosed property, making distressed homes 20% of the North Tucson market – one of the smallest proportions in all of Tucson. 

By the way – the most expensive short sale that closed in North Tucson in December 2009?  Sold for $1.1mil, had a roughly  $1.5mil lien, was on the market for 8 days, got an offer, and then took 7 months to close.  Short sales are not a game for the impatient buyer.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$908,735	-1.3%	$305,941	0%	$155,551	-2.2%	$651,229	-2.2%
Avg SP	$579,602	31.8%	$270,043	15.5%	$164,782	19.9%	$453,872	47.3%
Med SP	$475,000	16.1%	$234,000	12.5%	$164,300	42.9%	$377,000	39.6%
#Listed	457	-3.0%	114	-7.8%	158	30.9%	729	1.7%
#Sold	42	-37.0%	13	183.3%	10	0%	65	-9.0%
MOI	10.9 months	53.9%	8.8 months	-67.4%	15.8	30.0%	11.2 months	11.7%

North Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

December 17, 2009

North Tucson is full of luxury homes and communities – Pima Canyon, Catalina Foothills, Cobblestone, Alta Vista, and others.  There’s also a ton of condo conversions – apartment complexes converted into ownership units.  Neither of those markets are doing so well at the moment.  The luxury home market in Tucson has generally come to a halt, and the condo market is flooded.

In fact, in November 2009, only two homes sold over $700k.  And when the average list price in the area for a house is $920k, you know there’s lots of listings on the high end that are just sitting there.  And will continue to sit there for a long time.  There’s just not much demand for that price bracket right now.

The homes that are selling in North Tucson are largely under $350,000.  For that, you can get a basic smaller home in one of the track home communities, a decent town home, or a couple of condos.  The typical house will set you back $439,881, townhomes were $233,876 on average, and condos $137,423.

More condos and townhomes sold in North Tucson in November than houses.  Again, those condos and townhomes are lower price brackets, so they’re tending to sell better than single family homes.  Typically, inventory starts to ramp up in the area over the winter – if that happens, a larger glut of homes on the market in North Tucson isn’t going to do good things to home prices in the region. 

I often talk about areas like the Southwest being hit so hard with foreclosures and short sales – but the North is not excepted from that.  Of all the sales in November, nearly 30% were distressed property sales: either foreclosed properties or short sales. 

The average price of a single family home in North Tucson took a huge dive in November.  For most of the year, a typical home cost somewhere in the low to mid $500ks.  This month, the average was at $439k.  There were also only 60% of the usual home sales – only 29 units instead of the high 40s.  Typically, home sales slow a bit in winter – we’ll have to wait until February or so to see if those numbers start to climb again.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my North Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$920,457	+0.4%	$305,938	+3.5%	$159,055	-6.4%	$665,953	-3.4%
Avg SP	$439,881	-18.6%	$233,876	-20.8%	$137,423	0%	$308,095	-38.1%
Med SP	$409,000	-10.2%	$208,000	-11.1%	$115,000	-9.8%	$270,050	-20.6%
#Listed	489	-3.0%	119	-7.8%	161	+30.9%	769	+1.7%
#Sold	29	-37.0%	17	+183.3%	15	0%	61	-9.0%
MOI	16.9	+53.9%	7.0	-67.4%	10.7	+30.9%	12.6	+11.7%

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