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Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 30, 2010

Sales were up again in Northeast Tucson in April, though average prices took a small dip.

Overall, there were 53 sales in Northeast Tucson – 43 houses, 9 townhomes, and 1 condo.  Last month, there were 43 sales, and last year at this time, there were 44, so we’re had a bit more activity than usual.

Inventory held steady, down 2 units from last month to 499 homes listed in the Northeast side.  Because inventory stayed stable and sales picked up, the absorption rate went down.  There was 9.4 months of inventory in Northeast Tucson in April – meaning one in a little more than 9 homes managed to find a buyer and close.  The Northeast side tends to carry higher inventory levels than the rest of town anyway, so 9 months is a decent figure for the area.

The average home in Northeast Tucson sold for $311,911, with a median of $285,000.  That’s a $30k drop from last month, but because of the relatively low number of units sold, there’s quite a bit of variation month to month in values.  Last year at the time, the average home cost $329,428 with a median of $276,944 – that’s a 5% decline in Tucson home values, year over year in the region.

There were 11 foreclosed homes and 5 short sales that sold and closed in April in Northeast Tucson, making distressed homes 30% of the resale market in the area. 

Sabino Springs had 2 sales – two of the smaller homes sold, though there’s still 19 others in the community looking for Buyers.  And Lakes at Castle Rock had a whopping 4 sales, with only 10 left in the community for sale.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 26, 2010

Northeast Tucson is one of the only areas of Tucson to not see a large increase in sales between February and March.  While the rest of the city made a huge leap up, there were only a handful more sale in the Northeast.  Typically, sales start to rise about this time into the seasonal Summer high season.

There were 43 sales in Northeast Tucson, and 501 homes listed, both slight increases over last month.  There’s still quite an oversupply of homes, however, at 11.7 months overall.  That means roughly one out of every dozen homes managed to find a buyer and close.  Typically, we’ll see that absorption rate improve a bit over summer.

The average house cost $345,056 in March with a median of $289,900 – the low end in the Northeast is moving much better than the higher end homes.  Last year at this time, the average home sale price was $338,786 with a median of $276,000 – not really a large jump considering there are relatively few sales and therefore a lot of variability in the stats for this area.

There’s a small townhome market in Northeast Tucson – the average townhome cost $174,833.  There’s also a handful of condos, mostly lower end and closer to the city.  The average condo sold for $62,950 in March.

Of 43 sales, 5 were bank owned homes and 4 were short sales, making distressed homes nearly 21% of the Northeast Tucson resale housing market.

The most expensive sale in March in Northeast Tucson was at $730,000 for a large 3700 custom home on nearly an acre in Bear Creek Estates in a very Southwestern style and with nice mountain views. 

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$564,742	-2.7%	$196,348	-7.1%	$65,818	-10.2%	$493,474	-4.1%
Avg SP	$345,056	-2.6%	$174,833	26.6%	$62,950	n/a	$308,183	-2.9%
Med SP	$289,900	11.5%	$172,000	20.3%	$62,950	n/a	$283,000	22.5%
#Listed	414	1.7%	59	7.3%	28	21.7%	501	3.3%
#Sold	35	2.9%	6	-14.3%	2	n/a	43	4.9%
MOI	11.8 months	-1.2%	9.8 months	25.2%	14.0 mos	n/a	11.7 months	-1.5%

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010

March 23, 2010

Oddly, there were 15 sales in the $200k-$250k range when typically there are more like 7 or 8.  The same thing happened in November 2009 – that’s why we saw the median home sales price take such a dip.  With 41 sales in the region, 15 is a pretty large chunk.Recently, the median house sales price in Northeast Tucson has been in the low $300ks.  This month, it was $260,000. 

The average sales price was $354,174.  Last year at this time, it was $325,548.  I do not believe the market in the Northeast is appreciating.  I believe there are so few sales that the average sales price takes some pretty large swings in a generally downward trend.

Speaking of the number of sales, there were 41 in February 2010.  The Northeast is not a densely housed area.  41 sales is more or less in line for the season and the region at this time.

With 485 listed and 41 sales, Northeast Tucson had 11.8 months of inventory.  That means nearly 1 in every 12 listings managed to sell.  I’d expect that value to decrease – to improve – as we head into our high sales season.

Lakes at Castle Rock and Sabino Mountain were popular subdivisions, with 3 sales apiece.

Of the 41 sales, 3 were short sales and 14 were bank owned homes.  That makes distressed sales 41% of the Northeast Tucson housing market.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$580,260	$211,438	$73,265	$514,392	0.4%
Avg SP	$354,174	$138,143	n/a	$317,290	-5.6%
Med SP	$260,000	$143,000	n/a	$231,000	-16.3%
#Listed	407	55	23	485	0.6%
#Sold	34	7	0	41	36.7%
MOI	12.0 months	7.9 months	n/a	11.8 months	-26.4%

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

March 3, 2010

Northeast Tucson continues to struggle a bit, especially in a seasonally slow month.  The Northeast side of Tucson is one of my favorite areas with the greener valleys, the mesquite bosques, and some lovely views – but ever since the higher end market dropped out, the area has slowed quite a bit.  There just aren’t a whole lot of lower priced homes in the region, and those lower sale prices are carrying the bulk of the housing market at the moment.

That said, the average single family house cost $363,154, with a median of $305,000.  For comparison, last January the average house cost $362,468 and the median was $325,000.  House prices in Northeast Tucson are still slowly on the way down.  There’s a lot of variance in average and median prices from month to month, but overall home values are still on the way down.

There were 482 listings and 30 sales in January 2010 in Northeast Tucson.  400 were houses, 4 were townhomes.  30 sales is a dip down from last month, but sales typically slow over January.  Nothing unusual there.

Overall, there were 16.1 months of inventory – meaning one out of every 16 homes managed to sell.  Over half of those sales were less than $300,000.  That higher end market is just incredibly slow.

Of the 30 sales, 2 were bank owned and 3 were short sales.  That makes distressed properties nearly 17% of the market – one of the lowest percentages in all of Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome	Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$582,610	$206,107	$75,822	$512,341	-1.3%
Avg SP	$363,154	$161,125	n/a	$336,217	11.1%
Med SP	$305,000	$144,000	n/a	$276,000	8.9%
#Listed	400	59	23	482	16.7%
#Sold	26	4	0	30	-21.1%
MOI	15.4 months	14.8 months	n/a	16.1 months	47.8%

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

February 5, 2010

Northeast Tucson, along with East Tucson, are the smallest market areas in terms of housing units, typically.  While we know home values are decreasing in the area, there were a few more higher priced sales and a few less lower priced sales, which skewed the numbers upwards a bit.

Overall, there were 38 sales, down from 44 last month.  Inventory went down a bit too – from 454 to 413 units – so the months of inventory figure stayed more or less the same, at 10.8 months.  That means of 11 listings, only 1 sold – there’s too much supply for the number of buyers that are out there.

And to further illustrate that the smaller market areas have large swings, the average home sale price in December was $369,596.  Last year at this time, it was $292,208.  Clearly, home prices have not increased 26% year over year.  We have to look at the overall trend here, which is generally downward, but less so recently. 

Of 39 sales, 1 was a short sale and 8 were foreclosed homes, making distressed sales 23% of the resale housing market in East Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$585,923	1.3%	$200,663	-4.5%	$76,550	-5.1%	$518,946	0.1%
Avg SP	$369,596	11.0%	$191,260	9.3%	$56,840	-24.2%	$302,737	-0.2%
Med SP	$330,000	22.2%	$169,000	-6.1%	$43,500	-42.0%	$253,450	0.2%
#Listed	347	-10.3%	48	4.3%	18	-14.3%	413	-9.0%
#Sold	28	-24.3%	5	0%	5	150%	38	-13.6%
MOI	12.4 months	18.5%	9.6 months	4.3%	3.6 months	-65.7%	10.9 months	5.3%

Northeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

December 23, 2009

The Northeast side of Tucson is an interesting little market segment.  The region covers a largish geographic area, but the housing is generally not dense – there are many older houses on large lots, acreage and horse property.  There’s nearly two separate markets in the Northeast – the closer-in newer track home communities and then the older homes on large lots that tend to be further away from the city.

You can see that effect if you look at the list and sale price distribution for Northeast Tucson – there’s a peak around that $250k mark and another around $500k.  Granted, those upper end sales have slowed considerably, but in a more normal market, there was a secondary peak of sales around that mark. 

For being a large area, there are generally few sales, given that the homes are pretty widely dispersed.  Overall, there is 10.3 months of inventory, still fairly high.  However, if you look at the $200k-$250k range, there’s only 4.3 months of inventory – roughly one in four homes on the market in that price range is selling.  That’s a whole lot different from 10 months of inventory.  4 months of inventory means houses are moving quickly and there’s demand for that price range.  Being able to look at demand for any given price bucket is why I create those list vs sale distribution charts every month.  To broadly proclaim "It’s a Buyer’s Market!" can be very wrong depending on what area and price range you’re looking in.

Which isn’t to say everything Northeast is roses and kittens.  Prices overall have been on the way down – check the average and median sales prices for homes in the Northeast.  There’s quite a bit of bounce in the chart; with only 30-50 sales on average, you don’t get quite enough data for smooth charts.  You can see the general downward trend, however. 

Out of the 45 recorded sales in Northeast Tucson November, 5 were short sales and 8 were bank owned.  Those distressed property sales ranged from $130k to $685k and are 28% of the market. 

In other words, a quarter of the sales are from properties that typically sell at a decent discount for being distressed sales.  If you’re a regular home seller in the region, you’ve got some tough competition and proper pricing will be essential.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northeast Tucson Market page. (change to north)

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome		Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$578,644	-2.4%	$210,107	+11.8%	$80,670	-3.9%	$518,270	-1.3%
Avg SP	$332,960	-4.4%	$175,000	+17.2%	$75,000	-28.6%	$303,285	-5.5%
Med SP	$270,000	-12.9%	$180,000	+20.0%	$75,000	-28.6%	$253,000	-12.8%
#Listed	387	-2.0%	46	-4.2%	21	-12.5%	454	-2.8%
#Sold	37	+12.1%	5	+25.0%	2	+100%	44	+15.8%
MOI	10.5	-12.6%	9.2	-23.3%	10.5	-56.3%	10.3	-16.0%

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