Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010
May 24, 2010
Northwest Tucson had a very good April. Inventory was down, sales were up, and prices stayed roughly the same.
Overall, there were 2179 homes for sale and 329 sales in Northwest Tucson. That’s a bit less inventory than last month, and an increase of sales 22% over last month. It appears we’re starting our summer peak season, which normally tops out around July.
Just looking at single family homes, there were 1981 listed and 303 sales, which means there was 6.5 months of inventory, a level we haven’t seen since the peak of the season last year in July. Generally, a balanced market is somewhere between 5-6 months of inventory. That means roughly one in every 6.5 homes listed – oh, let’s just call it 2 of every 13 homes – found a buyer and sold. It’s a decent pace for summer, coming out of a rough winter. We’ll have to see how much of that is activity spurred by the now-expired tax credit.
The average single family home in Northwest Tucson cost $264,283, up $2500 from last month. The median remained the same, at $210,000. Overall, prices aren’t moving anywhere quickly.
There was one very high end sale this month in Northwest Tucson, an “eco-luxe villa” in Miraval that went for $2,195,000. The bulk of sales in Northwest Tucson continue to be in the $150k-250k price range for neighborhoods like Continental Ranch and Rancho Vistoso.
There were 71 foreclosed homes that sold, and 40 short sales, making distressed property just under 34% of the resale housing market in Northwest Tucson.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010
April 26, 2010
Quite a few sales in Northwest Tucson in March – 40% more than last month, actually. Nearly all of the city saw large jumps in sales in March. In Northwest Tucson, most of the sales were $200k and less. That low end of the market is what is driving sales right now.
There were 268 sales in March, up from 191 last month. I don’t expect sales levels like that to be sustainable, especially as the $8000 tax credit expires at the end of April. Sales typically rise into the Summer, so it makes sense for sales to increase, but the levels we saw in March were quite high.
Inventory went up slightly, from 2179 units to 2206 units. Because the number of homes for sale more or less stayed even and sales rose, the absorption rate dropped from 11.4 to 8.2 months, which is a huge improvement. That means roughly one in every 8 homes listed found a buyer and closed in March.
The average house cost $261,813 with a median of $210,000 in March, down slightly from last month. Last time at this year, the average house cost $263,759 with a median of $218,500 – not really much movement year over year.
There’s a small townhome and condo market in Northwest Tucson. The typical townhome cost $164,865, and the average condo was $47,500 – quite different price brackets between condos and townhomes.
Of 268 sales, 55 were bank owned homes and 25 were short sales. That makes distressed home sales nearly 30% of the Northwest Tucson resale housing market.
The most expensive sale in Northwest Tucson was at $1.8mil, an enormous home just under 6000 square feet in Stone Canyon up in Oro Valley. Looks like a spec home, never lived in.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | |||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $371,166 | -1.6% | $225,938 | 0.1% | $159,270 | 9.6% | $356,777 | -1.5% |
| Avg SP | $261,813 | -5.6% | $164,865 | -9.6% | $60,900 | -22.1% | $251,166 | -4.2% |
| Med SP | $210,000 | -7.0% | $150,000 | -2.8% | $47,500 | 3.3% | $205,500 | -6.5% |
| #Listed | 2009 | 1.0% | 150 | 5.6% | 47 | -2.1% | 2206 | 1.2% |
| #Sold | 245 | 46.7% | 17 | -5.6% | 6 | 0% | 268 | 40.3% |
| MOI | 8.2 months | -31.2% | 8.8 months | 11.8% | 7.8 months | -2.1% | 8.2 months | -27.8% |
Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010
March 10, 2010
Northwest Tucson has been on a bit of an upswing recently. If you look at the average and median sales prices for homes in Northwest Tucson, you can see a small upward trend over the past few months.
The average single family house cost $277,230, with a median of $225,899. Last year at this time, the average sales price was $271,637, with a median of $238,900, a year over year decline of 2%. However, there’s still an oversupply of houses – 1989 for sale, and 167 sold in February 2010. That’s nearly a 12 month supply of houses.
Townhomes continue to wobble in the mid to high $100s, posting an average sale price of $182,461 in February. The condo market sold off a few of the lower end units, with an average sale price of $78,200. Normally, condos are averaging in the low $100s.
Overall, the Northwest is moving along – inventory should start to move a bit quicker over the next few months, which tends to bring a small increase in average prices. You can see how the Northwest Tucson housing market moves over time in this inventory and price chart.
It’s good to see some homes moving again in Gladden Farms after that whole FEMA floodplain fiasco. Saddlebrooke had a big month too, along with Sky Ranch.
Of the 191 homes sold, 21 were short sales, and were 51 bank owned homes, making distressed home sales nearly 38% of the housing market in Northwest Tucson.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | ||
| Value | Value | Value | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $377,204 | $225,697 | $145,338 | $362,223 | 0.1% |
| Avg SP | $277,230 | $182,461 | $78,200 | $262,047 | 7.3% |
| Med SP | $225,899 | $154,250 | $46,000 | $219,900 | 3.7% |
| #Listed | 1989 | 142 | 48 | 2179 | 1.6% |
| #Sold | 167 | 18 | 6 | 191 | 10.4% |
| MOI | 11.9 months | 7.9 months | 8.0 months | 11.4 months | -7.9% |
Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010
February 22, 2010
Northwest Tucson had a slow January – just like every other January.
Of 2144 homes listed for sale, 173 sold. Most of those were single family homes – 155 of them. The rest were condos and townhomes.
The average single family house cost $254,365 with a median of $219,000, down from last month, but very much in line with the average and median for 2009. In fact, in January 2009, the average was $277,512 with a median of $212,000, a year over year decline of 8%.
The average townhome was $174,888 and the average condo was $128,933 last month. Because there are so many fewer townhome and condo sales, there tends to be a lot of bounce in those numbers.
The absorption rate, or months of inventory in Northwest Tucson overall was 12.4 months, meaning a little worse than one out of every 12 houses listed found a buyer and closed. Last January, we were at 16 months of inventory, but Northwest Tucson tended to stay between 7 and 9 months of inventory during 2009. Given the January slow down, I’d expect to see improvement in those numbers in the upcoming summer peak – especially with the buyer tax credit needing home buyers to be under contract by the end of April.
Of the 173 sales in Northwest Tucson, 22 were short sales and 49 were foreclosed property. That makes distressed property 41% of the housing market in Northwest Tucson.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | ||
| Value | Value | Value | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $375,981 | $226,959 | $135,265 | $361,736 | -2.6% |
| Avg SP | $254,365 | $174,888 | $128,933 | $244,237 | -9.2% |
| Med SP | $219,000 | $202,000 | $153,833 | $212,000 | 1.0% |
| #Listed | 1958 | 147 | 43 | 2144 | 15% |
| #Sold | 155 | 11 | 7 | 173 | -7.5% |
| MOI | 12.6 months | 13.4 months | 6.1 months | 12.4 months | 24.3% |
Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009
January 20, 2010
The Northwest side of Tucson had a bit of a jump in average sales price in December, to $269,126 – but that’s a bit deceptive. There were 70% more sales over $500k than last month, when the average sales price was a more reasonable $240,042. Last December, the average sales price in Northwest Tucson was $256,348.
The median sales price was $210,000, again, telling us that the jump in average sales price was most likely the influence of more larger sales during the month. Last year at this time, the median was at $212,000.
A typical home sold for $280k, townhomes went for $189k on average, and the condos at $121k.
Both inventory and sales went down in December in Northwest Tucson. There were 1865 active listings at the end of the month, and 187 sales, for a months of inventory of 10 months. That means one in ten homes on the market sold – a rather slow rate, indicating a fairly strong buyer’s market. There’s a lot of choice out there in Northwest Tucson, and prices are still heading down – albeit somewhat more slowly than before.
There were 23 closed short sales and 47 bank owned homes that sold, making distressed properties 37% of the market.
Popular neighborhoods are the big master planned communities – Continental Ranch and Rancho Vistoso. Gladden Farms is starting to sell again as well, starting to recover after being hit with that whole FEMA floodplain fiasco a few years back.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | |||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $388,462 | -3.7% | $230,150 | 3.2% | $145,270 | 4.3% | $371,350 | -3.3% |
| Avg SP | $280,254 | 15.0% | $188,600 | 8.7% | $120,671 | -26.5% | $269,126 | 12.1% |
| Med SP | $216,458 | 5.6% | $187,500 | 5.1% | $109,900 | -31.2% | $210,000 | 2.4% |
| #Listed | 1687 | -5.1% | 134 | -21.1% | 44 | -14.8% | 1865 | -1.5% |
| #Sold | 168 | 11.2% | 14 | -46.7% | 5 | 100% | 187 | 8.3% |
| MOI | 10.0 months | -14.7% | 9.6 months | 47.9% | 8.8 months | -57.4% | 10.0 | -9.1% |
Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009
December 16, 2009
Our first area report! I’m not in love with this format – let’s see how this works this month and go from there. My raw numbers are in a chart at the bottom, along with the percent change from last month. You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.
Northwest Tucson covers such a large geographic area – including Oro Valley and Marana. There are huge track home communites and high end luxury communities. Looking at averages here doesn’t always quite cut it, but those averages can start to give us some insight as to the housing market in the area.
But despite the diversity of the Northwest, there’s still some clear indicators.
The lower end of the market is still fueling sales in the Northwest – in the $100-$150k price bracket, there are 5 months of inventory. There’s only 4.5 months of inventory in the $150-$200k price range. Those are fairly low numbers, nearly teetering into seller’s market conditions.
Which isn’t to say prices aren’t continuing to drop, despite increasing sales units over the last 4 months. Take Continental Ranch for example. In June 2009, the average home in Continental Ranch cost $197,193 (median $190,476). November 2009, that same average house cost $192,536 (median $180,400).
Compare that to 2 sales in November in the $1.0mil+ market – and a total of 96 homes listed in that price range. Luxury sales are still stagnant, but there’s no shortage of inventory.
Townhomes and Condos remain tough markets. For the price of an average townhome, you can get a basic free-standing house and yard. The higher priced townhome sales tend to be in the age restricted communities – Saddlebrooke, Vistoso Village.
The $400k+ market is where the months of inventory goes to double digits and stays there – the drop off in sales starts in the mid $200ks and just slows down even more from there. If you’re trying to sell in that price range, you’ve got a lot of competition. Unless you’re the best priced in the best condition, chances are you’ll be sitting on the market for a long time.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome | Condo | All | |||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $403,398 | +1.2% | $223,026 | +12.8% | $139,338 | +10.3% | $384,108 | -1.0% |
| Avg SP | $243,680 | -2.5% | $173,469 | -12.0% | $164,125 | +185.4% | $240,042 | -2.0% |
| Med SP | $205,000 | +2.5% | $178,450 | -13.0% | $159,750 | +177.8% | $205,000 | +2.5% |
| #Listed | 1736 | -5.1% | 138 | -21.1% | 46 | -14.8% | 1920 | -1.5% |
| #Sold | 248 | +11.2% | 8 | -46.7% | 4 | +100% | 260 | +8.3% |
| MOI | 7.0 | -14.7% | 17.3 | 47.9% | 11.5 | -57.4% | 7.4 | -9.1% |
Pay No Attention To This Post
December 4, 2009
Hi there! I’m working on adding those market reports for the 9 areas of town. This is just a test to make sure things are working properly. Pay no mind.
No really.
Nothing to see here.
Move along.
(but come back on Monday when I’ll have November’s market stats posted!)
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