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South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010

May 26, 2010

South Tucson continues to have one of the lowest absorption rates in the city, and the average prices in the area have sort of leveled off for now.  Watching the number of active listings in South Tucson will be key, I believe, as a glut of homes in this area would certainly trigger another gigantic price drop.  Three years ago, homes in South Tucson regularly sold for twice what they do now.  It was hit so hard with foreclosures and short sales…

On to the numbers.

There were 96 sales in April in South Tucson – 91 homes and 5 townhome/condos.  This is more or less the same level as last month (99 sales), which is a decent sales pace for the time of year.

Inventory stayed roughly the same as well.  I found 511 active listings when I pulled my numbers, up from 509 last month.  With both inventory and sales on pace, the absorption rate was 5.3 months in April.  That means one in every 5 homes managed to find a buyer and close. 

Looking back, the absorption rate has stayed in more or less the same range since early 2009 – and the home prices in South Tucson leveled off at the same time.  It’s a good example of how inventory effects prices.  When supply and demand became somewhat balanced, prices stopped dropping like a rock.  There’s small fluctuations, yes, but no big moves.

Speaking of prices, the average home in South Tucson sold for $98,001 with a median of $95,000.  Last year at this time, the average sales price was $91,909 with a median of $85,000.

There were 13 short sales and 46 foreclosures that sold in South Tucson in April, making distressed property 61% of the housing market in South Tucson.

Tres Pueblos had a whopping 9 sales – every single one of them a distress sale with 4 short sales and 5 bank owned homes.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010

April 20, 2010

Home sales picked up quite a bit in south Tucson in March 2010.  There were 99 homes sold in March, compared to 66 homes the previous month.  Sales in the area tend to increase over the Summer months, but we haven’t seen 99 sales in the region for at least two years. 

Inventory went up very slightly – there were 509 homes listed in March compared to 502 last month.  Because inventory stayed more or less stable and the number of sales spiked, the absorption rate went down to 5.1 months overall.  5.1 months of inventory is not unusual for the area over the past year.  The low prices and newer homes are attractive to first time buyers, and those people are a huge segment of our market right now.

The average home cost $104,170 with a median of $96,000, an improvement over last month.  Last year at this time, the typical house cost $93,285 with a median of $90,000 – but I wouldn’t say prices are rising in the area.  They’ve been bouncing a bit between the $90ks and the low $100ks for a year now.

Highest sale price in the area was a brand new Lennar home down in Sycamore Park Village for $263,000 – a large 4 bedroom home at just under 3000 square feet.  Recently, sales in that subdivision range between $140k for the smaller homes, up to $280k for the larger ones.

Of the 99 sales, 50 were bank owned homes and 12 were short sales, making distressed homes 63% of the resale housing market in South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$111,223	-1.8%	$66,826	3.5%	$109,217	-1.3%
Avg SP	$104,170	16.1%	$67,750	26.2%	$103,434	17.4%
Med SP	$96,000	12.9%	$67,750	39.7%	$95,000	13.8%
#Listed	486	2.3%	23	-14.8%	509	1.4%
#Sold	97	54.0%	2	-33.3%	99	50.0%
MOI	5.0 months	-33.5%	11.5 months	27.8%	5.1 months	-32.4%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010

March 16, 2010

February was a bit slow for South Tucson this year – sales took a dip, average and median prices were down too.  It’s not that more cheaper houses sold, there were just less sales overall.

An average house cost $89,734 in South Tucson, with a median of $85,000.  Last month, the average was $96,244.  A year ago at this time, the average house was $103,405, with a median of $99,000.  That’s a year over year decline of 13%.

Typically, we’d start to see sales pick up over the next few months.  We’ll have to keep an eye on that.  While prices did dip down a little, they’ve been hovering in that $90k range for a few months.  If the number of sales dive, expect to break that price barrier.

Tierra Vista and Sycamore Park were big selling neighborhoods in South Tucson in February – lots of newer construction homes with very low prices.

Of the 66 sales, 37 were bank owned homes and 10 were short sales.  That makes distressed property 71% of the market in South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$113,261	$64,574	$110,643	-0.9%
Avg SP	$89,734	$53,667	$88,095	-8.4%
Med SP	$85,000	$48,500	$83,450	-11.2%
#Listed	475	27	502	5.0%
#Sold	63	3	66	-10.8%
MOI	7.5 months	9.0 months	7.6 months	17.8%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010

February 26, 2010

South Tucson home prices have been bouncing between about $90,000 and $100,000 for a good year now.  January just continued that trend.

The average home cost $96,244, with a median of $96,000 – both of those values are higher than last month.  For comparison, last year at this time, the average house cost $112,944 with a median of $110,000 – a year over year decline in house values of nearly 15%.

Sales were down a little bit, as tends to happen in January.  There were 73 houses and one townhome that sold in South Tucson, for a total of 74 units.  Inventory has been slowly declining for at least a year and a half.  Even when sales dip slightly, the lower inventory keeps a little better balance in this small section of the market.  There were 6.2 months of inventory of single family homes in South Tucson – on the high side of what we’d normally consider balanced.

In my humble opinion, the lower inventory levels are what are keeping prices bouncing in that range for a year.  If that’s true, then it is interesting that one of the hardest hit parts of town is seemingly also the first to show the most sign of recovery.  Or at least of a bottom to the decline.  Only time will tell – there are too many uncertainties to make strong predictions.

Of those 74 sales, 15 were short sales and 45 were foreclosed property, making distressed home sales 81% of the market in South Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$114,655	$64,407	$111,607	-3.5%
Avg SP	$96,244	$89,900	$96,159	4.3%
Med SP	$96,000	$89,900	$94,000	4.4%
#Listed	449	29	478	-1.2%
#Sold	73	1	74	-7.5%
MOI	6.2 months	29 months	6.5 months	6.8%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

January 25, 2010

The average sale price in South Tucson has been hovering around the $100k point for nearly a year now – sometimes a little higher, sometimes a bit lower.  In December 2009, a house in South Tucson cost $94,435 on average.  In 2008 at the same time, the average house was $108,513.

Since there are so few sales in high price brackets in South Tucson, the median sales price very closely follows the average – coming in at $90,000 for December 2009.

There are very few condos and townhomes in South Tucson – only 24 listed and 3 sold in December.  Depending on which communities had sales, the average sales price for those tends to either be around $30k or $60k.  For December, the average townhome/condo went for $35,567.

Of 484 listings, 80 of them sold, for a months of inventory (or absorption rate) of 6.1 months.  That means one in roughly every six homes listed managed to snag a buyer – a decent rate for the area which has shown steady improvements in absorption rate since the start of 2008.  A little higher than last month, but sales typically slow over winter anyway.

Of those 80 closed sales in South Tucson, 14 were short sales and 46 were bank owned foreclosures, making distressed property sales an incredible 75% of the market.  Distress sales tend to make home values drop like a rock, especially when they’re such a huge percentage of the market.  Given how low the prices are in South Tucson, we’re seeing a lot of investors and first time buyers picking up these homes because of home affordability.  Since the activity in South Tucson has been increasing, values there aren’t declining as quickly as one might expect.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$118,121	0.2%	$67,896	0%	$115,630	-0.1%
Avg SP	$94,435	-10.4%	$35,567	-43.8%	$92,227	-10.3%
Med SP	$90,000	-11.7%	$32,000	-56.8%	$90,000	-8.6%
#Listed	460	0.7%	24	14.3%	484	1.3%
#Sold	77	-16.3%	3	-50.0%	80	-18.4%
MOI	6.0 months	20.3%	8.0 months	128.6%	6.1 months	24.0%

South Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

January 3, 2010

South Tucson leads the city in number of distressed property sales.  There were 19 short sales and 48 foreclosures that sold in November 2009, out of a total of 100 sales.  That makes distressed properties 67% of the market.  That’s insane. 

Correspondingly, average home sale prices tanked in 2008 and have hovered in the $90k range for most of 2009.  There was a slight jump this month as the average house sale price in South Tucson was at $105,359, with a median of $101,975 – both increases over last month.

Compare that to November of 2008 when the average home was $120,969 and you get a 13% home price decline,  year over year.

What has kept pricing from dropping even further is the recent increase in sales in 2009.  In November, there were 100 homes sold in South Tucson, which is quite a few compared to the start of the year.  There were only 6 townhomes and condos in the area that sold in November – tracking the condo and townhome market all along the Southern band of Tucson is a little bit silly.  There’s just so townhome and condo units on that side of town.

There were 4.8 months of inventory in South Tucson, which means that roughly one in every 5 homes sold in November.  We consider the 4-6 month range to be more or less a balanced market.  Being in the lower half of that range is a good place to be in terms of market recovery.  Continuing large market shares of distress sales will keep those sales prices heading down, unless inventory drops or sales increase.  Right now, South Tucson is in a middle state – not quite balanced, prices still going down, but just a little nudge one way or the other could make or break that market segment.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my South Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$117,899	-2.4%	$67,876	+1.2%	$115,701	-2.6%
Avg SP	$105,359	+4.3%	$63,292	+63.8%	$102,784	+5.7%
Med SP	$101,975	+9.7%	$74,050	+102.9%	$98,500	+7.7%
#Listed	457	-4.6%	21	+10.5%	478	-4.0%
#Sold	92	0%	6	0%	98	0%
MOI	5.0	-4.6%	3.5	+10.5%	4.9	-4.0%

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