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Southeast Tucson Market Report – January 2010

February 22, 2010

Not a single condo or townhome sale in Southeast Tucson in January 2010.  There aren’t that many in the area to begin with though.

The average single family home cost $176,096 with a median of $157,700, down about $25k from last month.  That’s the lowest average sales price we’ve seen in the area for many years (and the second lowest median).  Last January, the average home set you back $201,390 with a median of $171,000, giving us a year over year decline in home values of  nearly 13%.

Of the 560 single family homes listed, 58 sold – which are fairly typical values for the Winter slowdown.  That means there was 9.7 months of inventory in January, also called the absorption rate.  I’d expect that number to improve over the next few months as we hit the deadline for the home buyer tax credit and the summer bump in sales.

There were 11 closed short sales and 16 foreclosed properties that sold in January 2010.  With 58 total sales, that makes distressed properties nearly 47% of the market in Southeast Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR	Townhome/Condo	All
	Value	Value	Value	%change
Avg LP	$255,009	$91,173	$247,208	-3.2%
Avg SP	$176,096	n/a	$176,096	-14.7%
Med SP	$157,700	n/a	$157,700	-12.4%
#Listed	560	28	588	10.5%
#Sold	58	0	58	-25.6%
MOI	9.7 months	n/a	10.1 months	48.6%

Southeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009

February 5, 2010

Southeast Tucson holds steady over the winter this year, recording values very similar to November 2009.  The average house sold for just over $205,000, with a median of $175,000.  The median, which dropped a bit over late summer, has been creeping back up slowly.  The average sale price was up a bit as well, but there were a few higher priced homes that sold in Southeast Tucson, which would throw that number off somewhat.

78 homes sold, including both single family and townhomes, with 532 homes listed.  For perspective, last year at this time there were 71 sales and 638 homes listed.  Lower inventory levels during 2009 have helped slow the price decrease in the area, though continuing high levels of distressed property sales will keep a downward force on prices for a while yet.

Overall, the absorption rate was 6.8 months, or 6.8 months of inventory.  That means roughly one in every 7 homes on the market actually sold.  Last year at this time, Southeast Tucson had 9 months of inventory – a two month improvement. 

Of 78 sales, 10 were short sales, 25 were bank owned homes, making distress sales 45% of the market in Southeast Tucson.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condo		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$260,319	-1.6%	$87067	2.8%	$255,434	-1.0%
Avg SP	$205,775	5.7%	$49,600	-5.2%	$206,502	12.3%
Med SP	$175,000	2.7%	$49,600	-7.3%	$179,950	7.9%
#Listed	517	-1.3%	15	-25.0%	532	-2.2%
#Sold	75	1.4%	3	-50.0%	78	-2.5%
MOI	6.9 months	-2.7%	5.0 months	50.0%	6.8 months	0.3%

Southeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

January 3, 2010

Southeast Tucson has a distinct seasonal sales pattern – more homes sell in the Summer than do in Winter,  usually bottoming out around January.  There were 80 homes that sold in November of 2009, a 16% decrease from last month, signaling the seasonal trend.  Expect that number to decline even a bit more over the next two months.

Even with decreasing sales, there is a respectable absorption rate.  Overall, Southeast Tucson has 6.8 months of inventory, just over the top of the balanced range, nudging it into the buyer’s market territory. 

Home values are generally still on the decline, though November posted a little uptick, coming in at $194,619, nearly a 10% increase over last month.  November 2008 had an average sales price of $207,971, so November 2009 posted a year over year decline of 6%.

Most homes were sold in the $150k-$200k price range – 30 units sold and 137 units listed in that price bucket.  While the Southeast as a whole has 6.8 months of inventory, that price bracket has significantly less, at 4.5 months of inventory.  Depending on what price bracket you’re trying to buy or sell in, you may face vastly different competition.  For comparison, there were 7 sales and 79 homes listed in the $200-250k range.  That’s 11 months of inventory – a huge selection for buyers and ridiculous numbers of competing homes for sellers.

The distressed property market is about a third of all sales in Southeast Tucson.  Out of 83 sales, 9 were short sales and 21 were foreclosed property.  As long as those are a significant chunk of the market, prices will continue to decline, unless inventory drops unexpectedly – and inventory levels have been in the mid 500s for nearly all of the year.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

	SFR		Townhome/Condos		All
	Value	%change	Value	%change	Value	%change
Avg LP	$264,498	-1.2%	$84,720	-18.7%	$257,888	-1.1%
Avg SP	$194,619	+9.8%	$52,333	-37.1%	$183,948	+5.0%
Med SP	$170,450	+7.9%	$53,500	-35.7%	$166,750	+5.6%
#Listed	524	0%	20	+900%	544	-0.5%
#Sold	74	-21.3%	6	+200%	80	-16.7%
MOI	7.1	+27.0%	3.3	+233.%	6.8	+19.3%

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