Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – April 2010
May 24, 2010
Sales took a little dip in April in Southwest Tucson, but I’m not sure that’s alarming. The figures we saw for March were way out of line for what was expected, seasonally.
There were 76 sales in April – 72 homes and 4 townhomes. Last year at this time, there were only 59 sales, and last month there were 90. 76 seems like a reasonable number for the area in April.
Inventory ticked up slightly from 463 units to 479 units. With sales down during the month, the absorption rate, or months of inventory, increased to 6.3 months overall in Southwest Tucson. That means roughly one in every 6 homes managed to find a buyer and close. Typically, a balanced market is considered to be 5-6 months. The Southwest has a history of very high and very low inventory swings over the past few years. Seeing a nice moderate absorption rate is a good sign for the area.
The average home sales price ticked up a bit too, to $128,918, up from $124,517 last month, and from $120,136 last year at this time. However, the median went down from $115k to $110k – a sign there may be more room for prices to fall in the region.
There were 40 foreclosures and 12 short sales that closed in Southwest Tucson in April, making distressed property a whopping 68% of the resale real estate market in that region.
There was a $500k sale in Southwest Tucson, which is unusual for the area – a custom home in Starr Ridge with insane mountain views. As in the mountain is in the back yard. Very nice.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – March 2010
April 20, 2010
Unusual for the Southwest side of Tucson in March was a home that sold for $530,000 – there hasn’t been a sale that high since mid 2008. The high sale didn’t really impact the average sale prices, however, as there was enough activity at the lower end to reduce any skew from that one large sale.
The average home cost $124,517, with a median of $115,000. Last year at this time, the average home cost $130,676 with a median of $125,000 – year over year decrease in home values of 4.7%.
On the more positive side, there were 90 homes sold in March, a huge increase over the 55 sales in February. Typically, unit sales increase over Summer, but we saw larger increases in sales across the city than I anticipated. I’m not sure these levels are sustainable, but only time will tell.
Inventory went up 2 units to 463 homes for sale. With the increase in sales and steady inventory, the absorption rate improved, it went down. There were 5.1 months of inventory in March, meaning roughly one in every 5 homes listed found a buyer and closed. Typically, 5-6 months of inventory is considered balanced, and the Southwest side has been flirting with that range for nearly a year.
Biggest selling subdivision was Star Valley with 21 sales – Star Valley is a master planned community in the further reaches of the Southwest side.
Of the 90 sales, 14 were short sales and 45 were bank owned homes, making distressed homes 66% of the resale housing market in Southwest Tucson
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome/Condo | All | ||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $141,299 | -4.3% | $103,566 | 0.9% | $139,099 | -4.1% |
| Avg SP | $124,517 | 1.7% | $46,310 | -59.7% | $121,910 | -0.3% |
| Med SP | $115,000 | -2.5% | $45,000 | -60.9% | $144,950 | 25.0% |
| #Listed | 436 | 0.2% | 27 | 3.8% | 463 | 0.4% |
| #Sold | 87 | 61.1% | 3 | 200% | 90 | 63.6% |
| MOI | 5.0 months | -37.8% | 9.0 months | -65.4% | 5.1 months | -38.6% |
Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – February 2010
March 10, 2010
Southwest Tucson seems to be leveling out over the past couple of months. If you look at the average home sale price in Southwest Tucson, the last few months have been holding steady in the $120k range. The number of sales is wavering a bit, making that whole idea of leveling out a little unsteady.
The average house cost $122,387, with a median of $118,000. Last month, the average was $118,743 – typical of January to be down a bit, and – also – typical of February to be up a bit. Last year at this time, the average home sale price was $138,364, a year over year decline in home values of nearly 12%.
In Feburary 2010, there were 435 homes listed, and 54 sales, giving us 8.1 months of inventory, also called the absorption rate. That means roughly one in every 8 homes listed managed to sell and close. If we follow seasonal trend, that number should improve over the following months.
There’s really little townhome/condo market in the Southwest to speak of. There was a single sale, at $115,000, with 26 others listed.
Star Valley and Tucson Mountain Ranch were popular areas in February – two of the larger communities in Southwest Tucson. On the higher end of the price range, there were two sales in Critterland, a TJ Bednar community built in the early 2000s on nice large acre-ish lots.
Of 55 sales, 4 were short sales and 26 were bank owned homes, making distressed sales nearly 55% of the resale market in Southwest Tucson.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome/Condo | All | ||
| Value | Value | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $147,644 | $102,665 | $145,108 | -2.0% |
| Avg SP | $122,387 | $115,000 | $122,252 | 3.6% |
| Med SP | $118,000 | $115,000 | $116,000 | 10.5% |
| #Listed | 435 | 26 | 461 | 4.5% |
| #Sold | 54 | 1 | 55 | 0% |
| MOI | 8.1 months | 26 months | 8.4 months | 4.5% |
Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – January 2010
February 26, 2010
Like the rest of the city, sales were down in January. It’s a seasonal trend – January tends to be the slowest month for closed sales, usually accompanied with a bump in inventory from those who waited through the holidays to list their homes.
There were 55 sales in Southwest Tucson in January 2010 – 52 single family homes and 3 townhomes. There’s just not a whole lot of townhomes in that region.
Inventory was up slightly, about 20 units overall, to 441 homes listed for sale. With 55 sales, that gives Southwest Tucson 8 months of inventory – meaning about one in every 8 homes listed actually managed to sell. During most of 2009, we saw much lower levels of inventory, tending to be in the 4-6 month range. Given January is seasonally slow, the bump up to 8 months doesn’t alarm me too much.
Prices are still on the way down in the area. The average home cost $118,743, with a median of $107,000. Last month, the average home was $122,229, and last January, the average home was $132,790. That’s a year over year decline in home values of just under 11%.
Of the 55 sales, 29 were foreclosed homes and 11 were short sales, making distressed property 73% of the market in Southwest Tucson. Not the highest percentage of distressed property in the city – I believe it comes in second to South Tucson.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome/Condo | All | ||
| Value | Value | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $150,255 | $107,547 | $148,027 | -0.5% |
| Avg SP | $118,743 | $104,167 | $117,948 | -3.5% |
| Med SP | $107,000 | $105,000 | $105,000 | -12.0% |
| #Listed | 418 | 23 | 441 | 5.3% |
| #Sold | 52 | 3 | 55 | -40.2% |
| MOI | 8.0 months | 7.7 months | 8.0 months | 76.1% |
Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – December 2009
January 20, 2010
Southwest Tucson has been a mixed blessing recently. Prices continue to generally decline, but inventory levels are lower than what we’ve seen recently. Usually, lower inventory levels tend to shore up prices – and indeed, the price decline has been somewhat slower recently.
The average sales price in Southwest Tucson in December was $122,229, with a median sales price of $119,345. Last year at this time, the average sales price was $127,017, with a median of $120,000 – about a 4% drop in home values, year over year.
No town houses or condos sold in December on the Southwest side. There aren’t that many over there to begin with.
Overall, there were 419 units listed for sale in Southwest Tucson, and 92 of them sold. That’s a 4.6 month supply, or absorption rate, meaning a little better than 1 in 5 homes on the market actually sold. That’s a decent rate for Tucson – I consider anything between about 4-6 months of inventory to be a generally balanced market, at least in terms of supply and demand.
Of those 92 home sales, 12 were short sales and 54 were bank owned property. That makes the distressed home market an incredible 72% of all sales in Southwest Tucson.
Popular neighborhoods in December were Midvale and Star Valley. Midvale is a mix of neighborhoods on the near Southwest side with good freeway access and nearby shopping and entertainment. Star Valley is out further Southwest, one of those newer master planned communities that popped up in the early 2000’s construction boom.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome/Condo | All | ||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $150,581 | 0.7% | $119,664 | 3.4% | $148,810 | 0.8% |
| Avg SP | $122,229 | -3.5% | n/a | n/a | $122,229 | -2.9% |
| Med SP | $119,345 | 0.3% | n/a | n/a | $119,345 | 0.3% |
| #Listed | 395 | -8.8% | 24 | -4.0% | 419 | -8.5% |
| #Sold | 92 | 35.3% | 0 | -100% | 92 | 33.3% |
| MOI | 4.3 months | -32.6% | n/a | n/a | 4.6 months | -31.4% |
Southwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009
January 3, 2010
I remember Southwest Tucson back in the early 2000’s, exploding with new construction homes. I remember being on waiting lists for a chance in a lottery to be able to purchase a home. My, how things have changed.
That huge construction boom drove up prices so quickly, and now they’ve tumbled back down amid overwhelming numbers of distressed property sales on the Southwest side. Of 76 home sales, 42 were short sales or foreclosures. That’s a whopping 55% of the market. It’s little wonder prices are dropping so far or so quickly.
The average house cost $126,634, with a median of $119,000. Compare that to a year ago when the average home was $145k – that’s a 13% decline in home prices, year over year.
The bright spot in the Southwest is that the decline of home prices seems to have slowed somewhat, which you can see in this chart of average list and sale prices in Southwest Tucson. The average house has been in the $120ks for several months now. That’s largely due to the increased number of sales in the region. Earlier this year, Southwest Tucson recorded months of inventory in the 4 month range – that’s very little supply, considering the area had recorded months of inventory figures well in the high teens for several months in 2007 and 2008.
Currently, there’s a 6.4 month supply of houses, and a 6.6 month supply of homes overall, when you include townhomes and condos – meaning there’s roughly 6 homes on the market for every one that sells. There are so few townhomes and condos in the region – only one sold in November 2009.
You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southwest Tucson Market page.
The raw numbers:
| SFR | Townhome/Condo | All | ||||
| Value | %change | Value | %change | Value | %change | |
| Avg LP | $149,537 | +0.2% | $115,715 | -5.3% | $147,691 | -0.2% |
| Avg SP | $126,634 | +5.3% | $78,000 | -18.4% | $125,929 | +5.9% |
| Med SP | $119,000 | +1.4% | $78,000 | -20.4% | $119,000 | +2.6% |
| #Listed | 433 | -4.0% | 25 | +19.0% | 458 | -3.0% |
| #Sold | 68 | -27.7% | 1 | -80.0% | 69 | -30.3% |
| MOI | 6.4 | +32.7% | 25.0 | +495% | 6.6 | +39.2% |
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