Northwest Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

December 16, 2009 | By Kelley Koehler | Filed Under Northwest Tucson 

Our first area report!  I’m not in love with this format – let’s see how this works this month and go from there.  My raw numbers are in a chart at the bottom, along with the percent change from last month.  You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Northwest Tucson Market page.

Northwest Tucson covers such a large geographic area – including Oro Valley and Marana.  There are huge track home communites and high end luxury communities.  Looking at averages here doesn’t always quite cut it, but those averages can start to give us some insight as to the housing market in the area.

But despite the diversity of the Northwest, there’s still some clear indicators. 

The lower end of the market is still fueling sales in the Northwest – in the $100-$150k price bracket, there are 5 months of inventory.  There’s only 4.5 months of inventory in the $150-$200k price range.  Those are fairly low numbers, nearly teetering into seller’s market conditions. 

Which isn’t to say prices aren’t continuing to drop, despite increasing sales units over the last 4 months.  Take Continental Ranch for example.  In June 2009, the average home in Continental Ranch cost $197,193 (median $190,476).  November 2009, that same average house cost $192,536 (median $180,400).   

Compare that to 2 sales in November in the $1.0mil+ market – and a total of 96 homes listed in that price range.  Luxury sales are still stagnant, but there’s no shortage of inventory.

Townhomes and Condos remain tough markets.  For the price of an average townhome, you can get a basic free-standing house and yard.  The higher priced townhome sales tend to be in the age restricted communities – Saddlebrooke, Vistoso Village. 

The $400k+ market is where the months of inventory goes to double digits and stays there – the drop off in sales starts in the mid $200ks and just slows down even more from there.  If you’re trying to sell in that price range, you’ve got a lot of competition.  Unless you’re the best priced in the best condition, chances are you’ll be sitting on the market for a long time. 

The raw numbers:

  SFR Townhome Condo All  
  Value %change Value %change Value %change Value %change
Avg LP $403,398 +1.2% $223,026 +12.8% $139,338 +10.3% $384,108 -1.0%
Avg SP $243,680 -2.5% $173,469 -12.0% $164,125 +185.4% $240,042 -2.0%
Med SP $205,000 +2.5% $178,450 -13.0% $159,750 +177.8% $205,000 +2.5%
#Listed 1736 -5.1% 138 -21.1% 46 -14.8% 1920 -1.5%
#Sold 248 +11.2% 8 -46.7% 4 +100% 260 +8.3%
MOI 7.0 -14.7% 17.3 47.9% 11.5 -57.4% 7.4 -9.1%

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