Southeast Tucson Real Estate Market Report – November 2009

January 3, 2010 | By Kelley Koehler | Filed Under Southeast Tucson 

Southeast Tucson has a distinct seasonal sales pattern – more homes sell in the Summer than do in Winter,  usually bottoming out around January.  There were 80 homes that sold in November of 2009, a 16% decrease from last month, signaling the seasonal trend.  Expect that number to decline even a bit more over the next two months.

Even with decreasing sales, there is a respectable absorption rate.  Overall, Southeast Tucson has 6.8 months of inventory, just over the top of the balanced range, nudging it into the buyer’s market territory. 

Home values are generally still on the decline, though November posted a little uptick, coming in at $194,619, nearly a 10% increase over last month.  November 2008 had an average sales price of $207,971, so November 2009 posted a year over year decline of 6%.

Most homes were sold in the $150k-$200k price range – 30 units sold and 137 units listed in that price bucket.  While the Southeast as a whole has 6.8 months of inventory, that price bracket has significantly less, at 4.5 months of inventory.  Depending on what price bracket you’re trying to buy or sell in, you may face vastly different competition.  For comparison, there were 7 sales and 79 homes listed in the $200-250k range.  That’s 11 months of inventory – a huge selection for buyers and ridiculous numbers of competing homes for sellers.

The distressed property market is about a third of all sales in Southeast Tucson.  Out of 83 sales, 9 were short sales and 21 were foreclosed property.  As long as those are a significant chunk of the market, prices will continue to decline, unless inventory drops unexpectedly – and inventory levels have been in the mid 500s for nearly all of the year.

You can always see the chart versions of this data too, at my Southeast Tucson Market page.

The raw numbers:

  SFR Townhome/Condos All  
  Value %change Value %change Value %change
Avg LP $264,498 -1.2% $84,720 -18.7% $257,888 -1.1%
Avg SP $194,619 +9.8% $52,333 -37.1% $183,948 +5.0%
Med SP $170,450 +7.9% $53,500 -35.7% $166,750 +5.6%
#Listed 524 0% 20 +900% 544 -0.5%
#Sold 74 -21.3% 6 +200% 80 -16.7%
MOI 7.1 +27.0% 3.3 +233.% 6.8 +19.3%

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